Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck



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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.157
Median0.890
Mean6.773
75% Quartile5.031
Interquartile Range4.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.141
258.476
351.182
445.219
540.838
634.834
730.713
826.977
923.403
1020.849
1118.832
1216.728
1315.226
1413.806
1512.350
1611.273
1710.103
189.008
198.123
207.476
216.891
226.285
235.888
245.348
255.031
264.771
274.397
284.118
293.813
303.500
313.233
322.980
332.793
342.618
352.393
362.226
372.069
381.931
391.824
401.690
411.570
421.485
431.416
441.327
451.250
461.169
471.099
481.014
490.952
500.890
510.836
520.785
530.728
540.677
550.628
560.573
570.542
580.513
590.482
600.443
610.408
620.383
630.361
640.335
650.317
660.298
670.282
680.261
690.242
700.228
710.211
720.198
730.183
740.170
750.157
760.146
770.135
780.125
790.116
800.106
810.096
820.087
830.079
840.072
850.066
860.059
870.052
880.047
890.041
900.036
910.031
920.026
930.021
940.016
950.013
960.010
970.007
980.005
990.003


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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