Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck



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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.351
Median1.329
Mean5.782
75% Quartile4.975
Interquartile Range4.624

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.606
247.424
340.505
435.101
531.139
626.192
722.944
820.102
917.519
1015.739
1114.366
1212.964
1311.964
1411.014
1510.049
169.341
178.550
187.804
197.199
206.752
216.341
225.891
235.617
245.213
254.978
264.780
274.484
284.262
294.026
303.768
313.550
323.331
333.171
343.025
352.821
362.673
372.527
382.400
392.296
402.167
412.048
421.964
431.893
441.802
451.723
461.636
471.563
481.469
491.399
501.329
511.267
521.208
531.139
541.080
551.017
560.950
570.911
580.872
590.832
600.779
610.731
620.697
630.666
640.630
650.603
660.576
670.551
680.520
690.490
700.468
710.440
720.419
730.394
740.374
750.351
760.332
770.312
780.294
790.277
800.257
810.238
820.221
830.203
840.189
850.177
860.161
870.146
880.134
890.121
900.107
910.095
920.082
930.069
940.055
950.046
960.036
970.024
980.015
990.006


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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