Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck



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Probability distribution for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.984
Median3.885
Mean15.053
75% Quartile15.190
Interquartile Range14.205

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1136.836
2106.517
394.587
484.964
577.652
668.080
761.431
855.301
949.421
1045.166
1141.761
1238.160
1335.512
1432.933
1530.252
1628.243
1725.960
1823.770
1921.969
2020.627
2119.381
2218.010
2317.169
2415.924
2515.198
2614.587
2713.669
2812.976
2912.243
3011.440
3110.760
3210.077
339.577
349.123
358.488
368.027
377.573
387.178
396.857
406.458
416.089
425.831
435.613
445.333
455.090
464.821
474.598
484.311
494.100
503.885
513.698
523.521
533.311
543.133
552.943
562.743
572.626
582.509
592.390
602.233
612.092
621.992
631.900
641.794
651.714
661.634
671.562
681.472
691.383
701.322
711.241
721.178
731.108
741.048
750.984
760.929
770.872
780.821
790.775
800.716
810.664
820.617
830.566
840.526
850.492
860.450
870.408
880.376
890.340
900.303
910.271
920.235
930.201
940.163
950.139
960.113
970.082
980.059
990.037


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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