Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Aug6.2270.4830.2773.73648.461
Aug-Sep12.1100.7750.3227.788110.739
Aug-Oct15.5800.8520.37010.082116.707

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.26344.197
209.59024.660
306.77816.095
404.98910.613
503.7647.319
602.8074.879
702.0423.310
801.3672.108
900.7351.118

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.545115.566
233.32591.345
328.67882.026
425.13574.493
522.92969.013
620.71361.569
718.69856.489
817.51351.878
916.34447.428
1015.26344.197
1114.27541.594
1213.58038.808
1312.71136.760
1412.14334.765
1511.48032.643
1611.03131.012
1710.57929.168
1810.20227.360
199.95225.828
209.59024.660
219.25523.564
228.87022.383
238.54221.580
248.20720.446
257.97119.756
267.70019.175
277.47618.313
287.21317.648
296.99616.896
306.77816.095
316.57215.386
326.39214.689
336.21614.155
346.01213.642
355.83212.960
365.66612.432
375.48911.921
385.36011.458
395.19311.087
404.98910.613
414.85510.169
424.7139.848
434.6159.583
444.4909.228
454.3478.916
464.2228.576
474.1328.276
484.0017.895
493.8727.615
503.7647.319
513.6547.058
523.5336.804
533.4426.514
543.3486.244
553.2605.979
563.1535.667
573.0755.488
582.9845.311
592.8915.121
602.8074.879
612.7274.645
622.6424.479
632.5544.327
642.4644.146
652.4014.008
662.3123.870
672.2333.744
682.1703.583
692.1123.423
702.0423.310
711.9743.160
721.9123.042
731.8412.908
741.7762.791
751.7122.664
761.6502.554
771.5732.437
781.5042.332
791.4342.234
801.3672.108
811.2961.994
821.2351.889
831.1791.773
841.1211.679
851.0511.599
860.9871.496
870.9141.392
880.8451.312
890.7961.218
900.7351.118
910.6551.029
920.6000.928
930.5140.825
940.4470.708
950.3730.628
960.2900.542
970.2100.425
980.1020.334
990.0000.238


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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