Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Jul6.6301.4100.0552.77735.059
Jul-Aug12.8571.8930.0866.51283.520
Jul-Sep18.7402.1850.10210.564145.798

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.16353.071
2019.70427.408
3013.08417.019
409.18510.734
506.4647.129
604.6874.565
703.2962.981
802.0661.815
901.0010.902

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
193.930155.057
272.944120.050
361.906106.611
453.90595.778
548.81387.926
644.19377.323
741.06470.145
838.28863.683
935.66757.509
1033.16353.071
1130.76349.529
1229.02445.773
1327.26343.037
1425.61240.396
1524.27837.612
1623.28735.491
1722.38433.115
1821.46630.809
1920.53128.872
2019.70427.408
2118.99626.045
2218.18924.585
2317.31923.601
2416.48822.218
2515.86621.382
2615.25420.681
2714.75419.647
2814.01018.854
2913.47917.963
3013.08417.019
3112.58216.189
3212.16015.377
3311.75814.758
3411.29814.167
3510.90013.385
3610.39912.784
3710.07912.204
389.79311.681
399.46411.265
409.18510.734
418.85510.239
428.5489.884
438.3209.591
448.0559.200
457.7848.858
467.5358.487
477.2988.160
486.9747.748
496.7037.446
506.4647.129
516.2616.850
526.0956.579
535.9396.271
545.7275.986
555.5855.707
565.4185.381
575.2265.195
585.0365.011
594.8864.815
604.6874.565
614.5554.325
624.4104.155
634.2464.001
644.0943.817
653.9563.678
663.7973.539
673.6663.412
683.5383.252
693.4033.092
703.2962.981
713.1802.832
723.0462.717
732.9012.585
742.7762.471
752.6422.348
762.5432.242
772.4042.129
782.2792.028
792.1861.935
802.0661.815
811.9551.708
821.8311.609
831.7161.500
841.6121.413
851.5161.339
861.4151.244
871.2831.149
881.1911.076
891.0920.992
901.0010.902
910.9290.823
920.8350.734
930.7430.644
940.6300.543
950.4950.475
960.3670.403
970.2870.307
980.1770.233
990.0520.159


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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