Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun2.3941.0030.8750.0091.26320.487
Jun-Jul9.14813.8452.2850.0644.05579.339
Jun-Aug15.51515.3772.7680.0957.900114.653

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.57241.595
2014.43821.149
309.71112.967
406.7078.080
504.7795.309
603.4343.362
702.3852.173
801.5621.309
900.8160.642

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.391122.714
259.27594.961
348.77584.287
443.01275.672
538.51669.420
635.04260.967
731.58555.237
828.69050.076
926.28845.142
1024.57241.595
1122.83238.765
1221.71135.765
1320.23833.581
1419.09631.474
1518.07629.255
1617.20427.566
1716.33225.677
1815.55923.845
1915.01322.309
2014.43821.149
2113.90920.070
2213.29118.916
2312.72418.139
2412.15317.049
2511.69916.391
2611.22315.840
2710.80215.027
2810.46214.405
2910.07013.706
309.71112.967
319.34912.318
328.91611.685
338.68111.202
348.39710.742
358.08010.134
367.7459.666
377.4739.217
387.2638.812
396.9698.490
406.7078.080
416.4787.697
426.2667.423
436.0757.198
445.8766.897
455.6536.634
465.4566.349
475.2806.099
485.1205.783
494.9595.552
504.7795.309
514.6245.096
524.4744.889
534.3354.655
544.1744.439
554.0434.227
563.9253.979
573.8213.838
583.6583.699
593.5423.551
603.4343.362
613.3333.181
623.2553.053
633.1072.937
643.0152.799
652.9232.694
662.8072.590
672.7092.495
682.5992.375
692.4832.256
702.3852.173
712.2992.062
722.2051.976
732.1171.878
742.0401.794
751.9481.703
761.8681.624
771.8031.540
781.7041.466
791.6311.397
801.5621.309
811.4811.229
821.4021.157
831.3371.077
841.2621.013
851.1920.960
861.0970.890
871.0310.821
880.9580.768
890.8810.707
900.8160.642
910.7320.585
920.6660.520
930.5840.456
940.4940.384
950.4170.336
960.3380.284
970.2780.217
980.1930.165
990.1110.113


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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