Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Nov6.8290.6980.7760.0179.38240.481
Nov-Dec10.8971.4591.2630.11816.65241.893
Nov-Jan18.1833.2431.2800.14422.716116.900

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.24645.065
2015.62925.239
3010.77216.650
407.87211.117
505.8657.752
604.3855.221
702.9923.567
801.7832.279
900.8581.193

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.806121.957
247.51895.341
342.90385.193
437.72277.047
534.68871.160
632.10163.229
729.54657.864
827.15753.032
925.47548.404
1024.24645.065
1123.12442.390
1222.06239.539
1320.97437.452
1420.08435.426
1519.22033.276
1618.45731.628
1717.70329.770
1817.13327.950
1916.15926.411
2015.62925.239
2114.94924.140
2214.47222.956
2313.92722.151
2413.44421.015
2513.06220.323
2612.43919.741
2711.96818.876
2811.50818.209
2911.10917.455
3010.77216.650
3110.42015.938
3210.02915.237
339.76414.699
349.47614.182
359.12413.493
368.84212.960
378.58312.443
388.36811.974
398.12711.599
407.87211.117
417.59810.666
427.35510.339
437.14310.069
446.9459.707
456.7389.389
466.5509.041
476.3718.734
486.1928.343
496.0208.055
505.8657.752
515.6907.483
525.5327.220
535.3816.921
545.2076.642
555.0686.367
564.9236.043
574.7855.857
584.6715.673
594.5225.475
604.3855.221
614.2344.976
624.1174.802
633.9614.643
643.7844.451
653.6664.306
663.5474.160
673.3994.027
683.2503.857
693.1213.687
702.9923.567
712.8863.407
722.7613.282
732.6433.139
742.5213.014
752.4042.878
762.2762.760
772.1602.634
782.0222.520
791.9032.414
801.7832.279
811.6722.155
821.5852.040
831.4921.914
841.4031.811
851.3231.724
861.2201.610
871.1451.496
881.0511.407
890.9421.304
900.8581.193
910.7581.093
920.6530.980
930.5650.864
940.4650.731
950.3490.641
960.2270.542
970.1100.408
980.0000.301
990.0000.188


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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