Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Product list for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Dec4.0680.7610.4880.3347.2701.411
Dec-Jan11.3532.5450.5040.36513.33476.418
Dec-Feb15.8913.6220.5210.36515.574105.850

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.932
2020.559
3012.744
408.027
505.326
603.408
702.224
801.355
900.676

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1117.274
290.706
380.508
472.291
566.336
658.297
752.857
847.963
943.289
1039.932
1137.253
1234.414
1332.348
1430.353
1528.251
1626.651
1724.859
1823.121
1921.662
2020.559
2119.532
2218.433
2317.692
2416.652
2516.023
2615.496
2714.719
2814.123
2913.453
3012.744
3112.120
3211.511
3311.046
3410.602
3510.015
369.564
379.129
388.737
398.425
408.027
417.656
427.389
437.170
446.877
456.621
466.343
476.098
485.789
495.563
505.326
515.117
524.914
534.684
544.471
554.262
564.018
573.879
583.741
593.594
603.408
613.228
623.102
632.986
642.849
652.745
662.641
672.547
682.427
692.308
702.224
712.114
722.028
731.929
741.844
751.753
761.673
771.589
781.514
791.444
801.355
811.275
821.201
831.121
841.055
851.001
860.930
870.859
880.805
890.742
900.676
910.617
920.550
930.484
940.409
950.359
960.305
970.234
980.179
990.124


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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