Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gwydir River at Yarrowyck ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun2.3580.8750.4380.0091.28020.487
Jun-Jul8.9882.2850.8050.0644.05779.339
Jun-Aug15.2152.7681.7400.0957.793114.653

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.32041.595
2018.78121.149
3012.71112.967
408.8248.080
506.3375.309
604.5363.362
703.1742.173
802.0831.309
901.0800.642

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.333122.714
270.02794.961
358.70284.287
452.40575.672
547.58069.420
643.49860.967
738.99955.237
836.24850.076
933.46345.142
1031.32041.595
1129.43638.765
1227.76235.765
1326.03833.581
1424.66531.474
1523.46129.255
1622.40527.566
1721.13625.677
1820.18623.845
1919.44222.309
2018.78121.149
2117.93520.070
2217.25718.916
2316.55318.139
2415.90217.049
2515.20016.391
2614.69315.840
2714.14015.027
2813.63314.405
2913.05813.706
3012.71112.967
3112.29712.318
3211.76111.685
3311.40311.202
3410.97910.742
3510.49410.134
3610.1339.666
379.8179.217
389.4738.812
399.1388.490
408.8248.080
418.5697.697
428.2317.423
437.9377.198
447.6996.897
457.4106.634
467.1246.349
476.9506.099
486.7545.783
496.5585.552
506.3375.309
516.0955.096
525.8914.889
535.6844.655
545.4874.439
555.3754.227
565.1973.979
575.0043.838
584.8613.699
594.6723.551
604.5363.362
614.3973.181
624.2633.053
634.0982.937
643.9652.799
653.8562.694
663.7152.590
673.5752.495
683.4662.375
693.3112.256
703.1742.173
713.0672.062
722.9391.976
732.8021.878
742.7231.794
752.6161.703
762.5101.624
772.3991.540
782.2621.466
792.1901.397
802.0831.309
811.9791.229
821.8791.157
831.7921.077
841.7001.013
851.5790.960
861.4660.890
871.3800.821
881.2930.768
891.1900.707
901.0800.642
910.9880.585
920.8960.520
930.7990.456
940.6760.384
950.5670.336
960.4770.284
970.3840.217
980.2890.165
990.1770.113


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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