Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.0994.754
203.5662.841
302.7082.009
402.0711.447
501.6401.083
601.2960.790
701.0050.586
800.7290.414
900.4290.254

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.89914.452
210.13510.614
38.4849.270
47.6018.262
56.9487.541
66.4766.655
76.0816.075
85.6805.562
95.3745.088
105.0994.754
114.8614.490
124.6654.213
134.4614.011
144.2863.813
154.1593.607
164.0243.451
173.8823.272
183.8003.098
193.6882.952
203.5662.841
213.4812.737
223.3982.620
233.2782.546
243.1682.436
253.0942.370
263.0132.313
272.9362.227
282.8502.161
292.7752.089
302.7082.009
312.6231.939
322.5601.867
332.4941.813
342.4351.763
352.3711.692
362.3061.638
372.2441.585
382.1861.537
392.1201.497
402.0711.447
412.0371.399
421.9971.365
431.9521.336
441.9121.297
451.8481.263
461.8061.225
471.7611.192
481.7241.149
491.6851.117
501.6401.083
511.6011.053
521.5701.024
531.5270.989
541.4950.958
551.4680.925
561.4240.888
571.3910.867
581.3590.844
591.3260.821
601.2960.790
611.2610.761
621.2320.740
631.2010.721
641.1750.698
651.1370.680
661.1150.662
671.0860.645
681.0570.623
691.0340.602
701.0050.586
710.9760.566
720.9540.549
730.9310.531
740.9010.514
750.8730.496
760.8450.480
770.8160.463
780.7830.447
790.7560.433
800.7290.414
810.6960.396
820.6700.380
830.6400.362
840.6050.347
850.5830.334
860.5560.317
870.5260.300
880.4900.287
890.4560.271
900.4290.254
910.3980.238
920.3680.220
930.3420.201
940.3070.178
950.2750.163
960.2380.145
970.2000.120
980.1500.100
990.0810.077


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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