Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.9333.036
201.5661.889
301.3591.379
401.1871.026
501.0490.791
600.9220.596
700.8070.456
800.6880.334
900.5410.215

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13.1519.740
22.7556.821
32.5475.870
42.4065.222
52.2774.744
62.1984.199
72.1193.840
82.0383.526
91.9833.239
101.9333.036
111.8702.877
121.8182.713
131.7802.593
141.7422.461
151.7142.344
161.6782.255
171.6452.140
181.6142.042
191.5901.955
201.5661.889
211.5461.824
221.5251.750
231.5011.709
241.4811.642
251.4571.602
261.4361.567
271.4171.514
281.3951.473
291.3791.429
301.3591.379
311.3401.336
321.3211.291
331.2991.257
341.2851.226
351.2681.181
361.2471.148
371.2341.114
381.2181.083
391.2011.058
401.1871.026
411.1730.996
421.1580.974
431.1400.955
441.1240.930
451.1130.908
461.0990.883
471.0860.862
481.0720.834
491.0600.813
501.0490.791
511.0360.771
521.0220.752
531.0100.729
540.9990.709
550.9860.686
560.9740.662
570.9640.648
580.9480.633
590.9360.617
600.9220.596
610.9100.577
620.8990.562
630.8900.549
640.8790.533
650.8690.521
660.8580.508
670.8460.497
680.8340.482
690.8200.467
700.8070.456
710.7960.442
720.7860.430
730.7760.417
740.7590.406
750.7460.393
760.7370.381
770.7240.369
780.7120.358
790.6990.348
800.6880.334
810.6770.321
820.6650.310
830.6510.296
840.6380.285
850.6220.276
860.6060.263
870.5930.251
880.5740.241
890.5570.229
900.5410.215
910.5240.203
920.5090.189
930.4890.175
940.4680.157
950.4460.145
960.4180.131
970.3830.110
980.3470.093
990.2920.074


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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