Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.3693.716
202.4902.511
301.9981.871
401.6291.392
501.3341.063
601.0770.788
700.8540.590
800.6440.420
900.4070.260

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.0317.405
25.1836.184
34.6405.711
44.3475.327
54.0715.045
63.9084.657
73.7324.388
83.5854.140
93.4513.896
103.3693.716
113.2243.567
123.1163.405
133.0233.284
142.9283.164
152.8183.033
162.7402.930
172.6782.812
182.6092.693
192.5612.591
202.4902.511
212.4362.434
222.3932.350
232.3352.292
242.2652.209
252.2132.157
262.1632.113
272.1242.047
282.0811.995
292.0421.936
301.9981.871
311.9601.813
321.9181.755
331.8731.709
341.8361.665
351.7991.606
361.7581.559
371.7281.513
381.6951.471
391.6641.436
401.6291.392
411.5951.350
421.5661.319
431.5301.293
441.5011.258
451.4661.227
461.4341.193
471.4041.162
481.3811.123
491.3561.094
501.3341.063
511.3041.035
521.2741.007
531.2490.975
541.2170.945
551.1950.916
561.1640.880
571.1390.859
581.1200.839
591.1000.816
601.0770.788
611.0530.759
621.0290.739
631.0050.720
640.9820.698
650.9600.680
660.9350.663
670.9160.646
680.8910.626
690.8740.605
700.8540.590
710.8300.569
720.8120.553
730.7930.535
740.7710.519
750.7520.501
760.7340.485
770.7120.469
780.6910.453
790.6660.439
800.6440.420
810.6200.403
820.5970.387
830.5750.369
840.5520.354
850.5290.341
860.5040.324
870.4840.307
880.4610.294
890.4320.278
900.4070.260
910.3810.245
920.3530.226
930.3250.207
940.2950.184
950.2720.168
960.2340.151
970.1970.125
980.1590.104
990.1010.081


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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