Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.4144.754
203.0652.841
302.3052.009
401.7571.447
501.3961.083
601.1020.790
700.8460.586
800.6100.414
900.3600.254

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.79314.452
28.79810.614
37.4479.270
46.6978.262
56.1207.541
65.6276.655
75.2686.075
84.9405.562
94.6585.088
104.4144.754
114.2244.490
124.0574.213
133.8594.011
143.7183.813
153.5623.607
163.4413.451
173.3463.272
183.2513.098
193.1572.952
203.0652.841
212.9892.737
222.9012.620
232.7962.546
242.7152.436
252.6402.370
262.5642.313
272.4912.227
282.4282.161
292.3642.089
302.3052.009
312.2431.939
322.1861.867
332.1271.813
342.0661.763
352.0081.692
361.9641.638
371.9141.585
381.8571.537
391.7981.497
401.7571.447
411.7211.399
421.6921.365
431.6501.336
441.6121.297
451.5661.263
461.5291.225
471.4931.192
481.4661.149
491.4291.117
501.3961.083
511.3601.053
521.3281.024
531.2970.989
541.2690.958
551.2440.925
561.2070.888
571.1770.867
581.1460.844
591.1250.821
601.1020.790
611.0660.761
621.0360.740
631.0100.721
640.9870.698
650.9630.680
660.9410.662
670.9120.645
680.8930.623
690.8690.602
700.8460.586
710.8210.566
720.8030.549
730.7810.531
740.7580.514
750.7360.496
760.7120.480
770.6840.463
780.6610.447
790.6370.433
800.6100.414
810.5870.396
820.5620.380
830.5310.362
840.5080.347
850.4860.334
860.4570.317
870.4340.300
880.4090.287
890.3860.271
900.3600.254
910.3330.238
920.3050.220
930.2800.201
940.2550.178
950.2210.163
960.1930.145
970.1590.120
980.1200.100
990.0540.077


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence