Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara



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Exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.1833.100
201.5101.926
301.1501.405
400.8961.045
500.7170.805
600.5740.607
700.4510.464
800.3310.340
900.2120.219

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.05410.131
24.6837.025
33.8666.030
43.2875.356
53.0444.861
62.7804.298
72.5793.927
82.4213.604
92.3093.309
102.1833.100
112.0822.938
121.9982.770
131.9142.646
141.8572.511
151.7982.392
161.7392.301
171.6752.182
181.6162.082
191.5591.994
201.5101.926
211.4591.860
221.4231.784
231.3751.742
241.3351.674
251.2991.633
261.2651.597
271.2421.543
281.2131.501
291.1771.456
301.1501.405
311.1211.361
321.0941.315
331.0661.281
341.0411.249
351.0181.203
360.9851.169
370.9601.134
380.9351.104
390.9171.078
400.8961.045
410.8751.014
420.8520.992
430.8320.972
440.8180.947
450.8000.925
460.7840.899
470.7650.878
480.7460.849
490.7330.828
500.7170.805
510.6980.785
520.6860.766
530.6690.742
540.6540.721
550.6380.699
560.6250.674
570.6120.659
580.5990.644
590.5870.628
600.5740.607
610.5620.587
620.5480.572
630.5380.559
640.5240.543
650.5100.530
660.4990.517
670.4880.506
680.4750.490
690.4620.475
700.4510.464
710.4400.450
720.4300.438
730.4160.424
740.4020.412
750.3910.399
760.3790.388
770.3670.376
780.3540.364
790.3430.354
800.3310.340
810.3190.327
820.3070.315
830.2940.301
840.2830.290
850.2720.281
860.2600.268
870.2460.255
880.2340.245
890.2220.232
900.2120.219
910.1990.207
920.1850.192
930.1720.177
940.1590.160
950.1430.147
960.1220.133
970.1000.112
980.0780.095
990.0520.075


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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