Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.3720.393
Median0.5320.791
Mean0.6011.364
75% Quartile0.7591.601
Interquartile Range0.3871.209

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.6849.740
21.5066.821
31.3755.870
41.2875.222
51.2234.744
61.1654.199
71.1143.840
81.0823.526
91.0423.239
101.0113.036
110.9862.877
120.9622.713
130.9362.593
140.9142.461
150.8952.344
160.8782.255
170.8602.140
180.8472.042
190.8271.955
200.8151.889
210.8051.824
220.7921.750
230.7801.709
240.7691.642
250.7591.602
260.7461.567
270.7341.514
280.7231.473
290.7121.429
300.7021.379
310.6931.336
320.6811.291
330.6731.257
340.6631.226
350.6531.181
360.6441.148
370.6351.114
380.6251.083
390.6151.058
400.6081.026
410.5990.996
420.5910.974
430.5820.955
440.5750.930
450.5670.908
460.5600.883
470.5530.862
480.5470.834
490.5390.813
500.5320.791
510.5270.771
520.5170.752
530.5110.729
540.5040.709
550.4960.686
560.4900.662
570.4850.648
580.4780.633
590.4720.617
600.4660.596
610.4600.577
620.4530.562
630.4470.549
640.4410.533
650.4350.521
660.4290.508
670.4230.497
680.4170.482
690.4110.467
700.4050.456
710.3960.442
720.3910.430
730.3840.417
740.3770.406
750.3720.393
760.3650.381
770.3590.369
780.3520.358
790.3470.348
800.3410.334
810.3340.321
820.3260.310
830.3180.296
840.3100.285
850.3020.276
860.2950.263
870.2860.251
880.2780.241
890.2690.229
900.2590.215
910.2500.203
920.2400.189
930.2290.175
940.2180.157
950.2060.145
960.1930.131
970.1770.110
980.1560.093
990.1290.074


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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