Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.4940.460
Median0.7630.931
Mean0.9201.570
75% Quartile1.1621.888
Interquartile Range0.6681.428

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13.35310.347
22.7857.595
32.4216.668
42.2585.964
52.0945.456
61.9794.864
71.8924.465
81.8014.112
91.7403.789
101.6753.558
111.6313.376
121.5813.186
131.5343.046
141.4852.902
151.4452.763
161.4172.656
171.3732.524
181.3452.405
191.3242.303
201.2942.226
211.2692.149
221.2422.063
231.2112.014
241.1841.936
251.1631.888
261.1441.848
271.1251.785
281.1041.737
291.0821.685
301.0611.626
311.0421.575
321.0281.522
331.0081.482
340.9941.446
350.9791.392
360.9611.353
370.9471.313
380.9331.277
390.9141.247
400.9011.209
410.8851.173
420.8731.147
430.8581.125
440.8421.096
450.8281.070
460.8141.040
470.8001.015
480.7850.982
490.7750.957
500.7630.931
510.7520.908
520.7380.885
530.7280.858
540.7160.834
550.7060.807
560.6950.779
570.6860.761
580.6720.744
590.6620.726
600.6510.701
610.6390.678
620.6280.661
630.6160.645
640.6060.626
650.5970.612
660.5860.597
670.5760.583
680.5660.566
690.5560.548
700.5470.535
710.5370.518
720.5250.505
730.5140.489
740.5040.475
750.4940.460
760.4850.447
770.4770.433
780.4640.419
790.4490.407
800.4380.391
810.4280.376
820.4180.362
830.4060.347
840.3940.334
850.3800.323
860.3670.308
870.3550.293
880.3460.281
890.3320.267
900.3200.252
910.3050.237
920.2840.221
930.2710.204
940.2580.183
950.2420.168
960.2220.152
970.1970.128
980.1730.108
990.1280.086


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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