Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.3980.501
Median0.7381.063
Mean0.9941.597
75% Quartile1.3092.157
Interquartile Range0.9111.656

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.4127.405
23.5486.184
33.2155.711
42.9575.327
52.7235.045
62.5804.657
72.4194.388
82.3214.140
92.1873.896
102.1093.716
112.0343.567
121.9463.405
131.8763.284
141.8103.164
151.7483.033
161.6912.930
171.6372.812
181.5912.693
191.5452.591
201.4992.511
211.4522.434
221.4092.350
231.3782.292
241.3492.209
251.3092.157
261.2752.113
271.2482.047
281.2191.995
291.1881.936
301.1601.871
311.1341.813
321.1031.755
331.0831.709
341.0601.665
351.0381.606
361.0141.559
370.9921.513
380.9661.471
390.9461.436
400.9221.392
410.9011.350
420.8781.319
430.8621.293
440.8441.258
450.8261.227
460.8051.193
470.7891.162
480.7711.123
490.7551.094
500.7381.063
510.7181.035
520.6971.007
530.6850.975
540.6690.945
550.6550.916
560.6380.880
570.6260.859
580.6130.839
590.5990.816
600.5860.788
610.5730.759
620.5570.739
630.5400.720
640.5260.698
650.5120.680
660.4980.663
670.4890.646
680.4780.626
690.4640.605
700.4530.590
710.4400.569
720.4290.553
730.4170.535
740.4090.519
750.3980.501
760.3870.485
770.3750.469
780.3610.453
790.3430.439
800.3310.420
810.3180.403
820.3030.387
830.2920.369
840.2790.354
850.2650.341
860.2510.324
870.2410.307
880.2270.294
890.2120.278
900.1980.260
910.1800.245
920.1670.226
930.1500.207
940.1350.184
950.1180.168
960.0940.151
970.0720.125
980.0480.104
990.0170.081


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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