Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7580.547
Median1.5071.152
Mean2.2722.072
75% Quartile2.9062.435
Interquartile Range2.1471.888

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.27614.862
29.46310.693
38.1889.292
47.4648.260
56.9377.532
66.4046.646
75.9676.070
85.5855.565
95.2485.099
104.9804.771
114.7294.513
124.5044.242
134.2904.044
144.1483.851
153.9963.649
163.8593.497
173.6943.322
183.5563.151
193.4203.008
203.3412.900
213.2432.797
223.1532.682
233.0672.610
242.9832.501
252.9062.436
262.8022.380
272.7182.295
282.6472.230
292.5612.159
302.4952.079
312.4352.010
322.3601.939
332.2881.885
342.2331.835
352.1821.764
362.1281.711
372.0731.657
382.0191.610
391.9611.570
401.9171.519
411.8671.471
421.8221.437
431.7801.408
441.7291.369
451.6881.335
461.6551.296
471.6201.263
481.5831.219
491.5401.186
501.5071.152
511.4651.122
521.4391.092
531.4001.057
541.3651.025
551.3280.991
561.2920.954
571.2620.931
581.2280.909
591.1930.885
601.1580.853
611.1350.823
621.1090.802
631.0830.781
641.0530.758
651.0290.739
660.9970.720
670.9670.703
680.9340.680
690.9080.658
700.8880.642
710.8620.620
720.8380.603
730.8080.583
740.7790.566
750.7580.547
760.7330.530
770.7020.512
780.6750.496
790.6540.480
800.6260.460
810.6050.442
820.5790.425
830.5600.405
840.5370.389
850.5130.376
860.4860.357
870.4630.339
880.4360.325
890.4090.307
900.3830.289
910.3490.271
920.3250.252
930.2960.231
940.2740.206
950.2470.189
960.2140.169
970.1830.142
980.1190.119
990.0580.093


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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