Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.6150.402
Median1.1440.781
Mean1.6001.227
75% Quartile2.0551.514
Interquartile Range1.4391.112

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.0947.188
25.8635.449
35.2394.839
44.8254.378
54.4404.047
64.1373.635
73.9023.363
83.6923.120
93.5282.892
103.3622.730
113.2402.601
123.0852.465
132.9802.364
142.8812.265
152.7852.161
162.6842.082
172.5951.990
182.5241.900
192.4391.824
202.3711.766
212.3121.711
222.2491.649
232.1861.610
242.1181.550
252.0551.515
262.0041.484
271.9441.437
281.9011.401
291.8571.361
301.8181.317
311.7731.278
321.7331.238
331.6861.208
341.6481.179
351.6111.139
361.5681.108
371.5351.078
381.4991.050
391.4611.027
401.4240.998
411.3910.970
421.3630.950
431.3340.932
441.3120.909
451.2840.889
461.2520.866
471.2210.847
481.1950.821
491.1720.801
501.1440.781
511.1220.762
521.1020.744
531.0800.723
541.0510.704
551.0270.683
561.0070.660
570.9830.646
580.9640.632
590.9430.617
600.9270.597
610.9050.579
620.8860.565
630.8670.553
640.8420.538
650.8160.526
660.7980.514
670.7820.503
680.7580.489
690.7340.474
700.7140.464
710.6920.450
720.6720.439
730.6510.426
740.6320.415
750.6150.402
760.5990.391
770.5840.380
780.5640.369
790.5440.358
800.5240.345
810.5050.333
820.4850.321
830.4640.308
840.4470.297
850.4250.288
860.4090.276
870.3910.263
880.3690.253
890.3490.241
900.3300.228
910.3110.216
920.2910.202
930.2680.187
940.2440.169
950.2250.156
960.2040.142
970.1730.121
980.1320.103
990.0860.083


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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