Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.0950.387
Median2.8980.677
Mean3.1910.884
75% Quartile3.9281.135
Interquartile Range1.8330.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.9093.958
27.4993.080
36.8602.787
46.4272.567
56.1102.410
65.8682.214
75.6782.083
85.4691.966
95.2861.855
105.1361.775
115.0141.710
124.8751.642
134.7821.591
144.6841.540
154.6021.486
164.5251.445
174.4441.396
184.3741.348
194.2821.307
204.2101.276
214.1551.245
224.0931.211
234.0271.189
243.9791.155
253.9301.135
263.8771.118
273.8141.091
283.7541.069
293.7091.046
303.6571.020
313.5990.997
323.5570.973
333.5200.954
343.4760.937
353.4440.912
363.3950.893
373.3540.874
383.3190.856
393.2770.842
403.2330.823
413.1930.805
423.1640.791
433.1280.780
443.0860.765
453.0540.751
463.0210.736
472.9880.723
482.9610.705
492.9240.692
502.8980.677
512.8580.664
522.8220.652
532.7900.636
542.7500.623
552.7090.608
562.6770.591
572.6530.581
582.6170.570
592.5920.559
602.5630.544
612.5310.530
622.4960.520
632.4720.510
642.4400.498
652.4040.489
662.3730.480
672.3460.471
682.3190.459
692.2850.447
702.2540.439
712.2250.428
722.1920.418
732.1600.408
742.1220.398
752.0950.387
762.0660.378
772.0340.367
782.0020.358
791.9740.349
801.9360.337
811.8960.325
821.8590.315
831.8230.303
841.7880.292
851.7520.283
861.7060.271
871.6660.259
881.6300.249
891.5820.237
901.5340.223
911.4880.211
921.4300.196
931.3820.179
941.3260.159
951.2570.144
961.1940.127
971.1170.101
981.0100.078
990.8430.050


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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