Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.8560.412
Median1.3230.745
Mean1.6161.108
75% Quartile2.0451.353
Interquartile Range1.1890.941

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.0456.388
25.0904.650
34.3534.103
44.0353.696
53.7103.406
63.5123.070
73.3312.844
83.1912.645
93.0772.461
102.9862.330
112.8932.226
122.8122.117
132.7292.036
142.6631.953
152.5981.872
162.5191.810
172.4481.733
182.3721.662
192.3271.602
202.2891.556
212.2161.511
222.1681.459
232.1221.429
242.0811.382
252.0461.353
262.0131.329
271.9761.290
281.9391.261
291.9031.229
301.8651.192
311.8291.160
321.7981.127
331.7641.102
341.7251.079
351.6941.046
361.6651.020
371.6360.995
381.6100.972
391.5820.953
401.5530.928
411.5210.905
421.4980.888
431.4750.873
441.4470.854
451.4280.837
461.4100.818
471.3870.801
481.3680.779
491.3460.762
501.3230.745
511.2970.729
521.2780.714
531.2530.695
541.2320.678
551.2180.660
561.1980.641
571.1750.629
581.1590.616
591.1420.604
601.1240.586
611.1020.570
621.0840.558
631.0660.547
641.0440.533
651.0320.523
661.0160.512
670.9950.502
680.9810.490
690.9620.477
700.9480.467
710.9270.455
720.9110.445
730.8880.433
740.8720.423
750.8560.412
760.8350.402
770.8200.391
780.7980.381
790.7790.371
800.7530.359
810.7320.347
820.7110.337
830.6950.324
840.6670.314
850.6470.305
860.6280.294
870.6080.282
880.5880.272
890.5680.260
900.5460.248
910.5200.236
920.4950.222
930.4740.207
940.4460.189
950.4140.177
960.3800.162
970.3440.141
980.2900.122
990.2290.100


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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