Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7020.399
Median1.2640.805
Mean1.8231.397
75% Quartile2.2681.632
Interquartile Range1.5651.233

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.73710.131
27.5727.025
36.2996.030
45.5545.356
55.0534.861
64.6584.298
74.3723.927
84.0633.604
93.9033.309
103.7283.100
113.5532.938
123.4272.770
133.3292.646
143.1972.511
153.0782.392
162.9502.301
172.8522.182
182.7642.082
192.6861.994
202.6051.926
212.5281.860
222.4611.784
232.3821.742
242.3281.674
252.2681.633
262.2151.597
272.1691.543
282.1051.501
292.0481.456
301.9991.405
311.9501.361
321.9051.315
331.8571.281
341.8091.249
351.7651.203
361.7181.169
371.6761.134
381.6461.104
391.6131.078
401.5751.045
411.5371.014
421.5020.992
431.4720.972
441.4420.947
451.4040.925
461.3790.899
471.3490.878
481.3230.849
491.2950.828
501.2640.805
511.2390.785
521.2140.766
531.1930.742
541.1610.721
551.1350.699
561.1110.674
571.0890.659
581.0640.644
591.0350.628
601.0120.607
610.9910.587
620.9680.572
630.9490.559
640.9280.543
650.9060.530
660.8870.517
670.8640.506
680.8450.490
690.8260.475
700.8030.464
710.7800.450
720.7560.438
730.7390.424
740.7190.412
750.7020.399
760.6850.388
770.6600.376
780.6410.364
790.6190.354
800.5950.340
810.5720.327
820.5500.315
830.5310.301
840.5170.290
850.4990.281
860.4800.268
870.4560.255
880.4390.245
890.4190.232
900.3910.219
910.3690.207
920.3490.192
930.3240.177
940.2970.160
950.2670.147
960.2390.133
970.2010.112
980.1650.095
990.1180.075


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence