Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara



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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.465
Median0.981
Mean1.803
75% Quartile2.079
Interquartile Range1.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.778
29.551
38.225
47.249
56.561
65.776
75.256
84.803
94.393
104.103
113.876
123.642
133.469
143.293
153.124
162.994
172.835
182.691
192.570
202.478
212.387
222.285
232.227
242.135
252.079
262.032
271.959
281.902
291.842
301.773
311.714
321.653
331.607
341.565
351.504
361.458
371.412
381.372
391.338
401.295
411.253
421.224
431.199
441.166
451.137
461.104
471.075
481.038
491.010
500.981
510.955
520.930
530.899
540.873
550.844
560.812
570.793
580.773
590.753
600.726
610.701
620.682
630.665
640.645
650.629
660.613
670.598
680.579
690.560
700.546
710.528
720.513
730.496
740.481
750.465
760.451
770.436
780.422
790.409
800.392
810.376
820.361
830.345
840.331
850.319
860.304
870.288
880.276
890.261
900.245
910.231
920.214
930.196
940.175
950.160
960.144
970.120
980.101
990.079


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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