Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara

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Probability distribution for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Nov 2009 )

Basic Statistics
	Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL)	Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile	0.130	0.496
Median	0.320	1.083
Mean	0.584	2.012
75% Quartile	0.701	2.369
Interquartile Range	0.570	1.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of Streamflow (%)	Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL)	Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL)
1	4.079	14.452
2	3.022	10.614
3	2.478	9.270
4	2.184	8.262
5	1.953	7.541
6	1.801	6.655
7	1.647	6.075
8	1.534	5.562
9	1.430	5.088
10	1.356	4.754
11	1.271	4.490
12	1.209	4.213
13	1.148	4.011
14	1.097	3.813
15	1.046	3.607
16	1.002	3.451
17	0.951	3.272
18	0.905	3.098
19	0.872	2.952
20	0.833	2.841
21	0.802	2.737
22	0.776	2.620
23	0.749	2.546
24	0.722	2.436
25	0.701	2.370
26	0.672	2.313
27	0.648	2.227
28	0.625	2.161
29	0.611	2.089
30	0.590	2.009
31	0.572	1.939
32	0.549	1.867
33	0.530	1.813
34	0.516	1.763
35	0.503	1.692
36	0.489	1.638
37	0.473	1.585
38	0.460	1.537
39	0.449	1.497
40	0.437	1.447
41	0.426	1.399
42	0.411	1.365
43	0.399	1.336
44	0.388	1.297
45	0.379	1.263
46	0.366	1.225
47	0.351	1.192
48	0.342	1.149
49	0.331	1.117
50	0.320	1.083
51	0.309	1.053
52	0.300	1.024
53	0.291	0.989
54	0.284	0.958
55	0.276	0.925
56	0.267	0.888
57	0.258	0.867
58	0.249	0.844
59	0.242	0.821
60	0.235	0.790
61	0.227	0.761
62	0.221	0.740
63	0.215	0.721
64	0.207	0.698
65	0.198	0.680
66	0.191	0.662
67	0.186	0.645
68	0.177	0.623
69	0.169	0.602
70	0.162	0.586
71	0.154	0.566
72	0.150	0.549
73	0.144	0.531
74	0.136	0.514
75	0.130	0.496
76	0.123	0.480
77	0.115	0.463
78	0.109	0.447
79	0.104	0.433
80	0.098	0.414
81	0.093	0.396
82	0.086	0.380
83	0.080	0.362
84	0.074	0.347
85	0.069	0.334
86	0.063	0.317
87	0.057	0.300
88	0.051	0.287
89	0.044	0.271
90	0.037	0.254
91	0.030	0.238
92	0.022	0.220
93	0.011	0.201
94	0.003	0.178
95	0.000	0.163
96	0.000	0.145
97	0.000	0.120
98	0.000	0.100
99	0.000	0.077

The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.

Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence