Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


Return to catchment list
Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Sep0.6200.4510.5770.0290.1662.619
Sep-Oct1.1220.6391.0870.0550.3687.171
Sep-Nov1.7925.6531.5510.0770.9878.623

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.2933.558
203.3742.226
302.8151.626
402.3971.209
502.0840.931
601.7920.701
701.5000.535
801.2380.391
900.9210.252

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.39010.347
26.5207.595
35.8556.668
45.4615.964
55.1545.456
64.8954.864
74.7044.465
84.5824.112
94.4203.789
104.2933.558
114.1783.376
124.0733.186
133.9523.046
143.8532.902
153.7602.763
163.6762.656
173.6162.524
183.5362.405
193.4452.303
203.3742.226
213.2962.149
223.2322.063
233.1742.014
243.1171.936
253.0731.888
263.0331.848
272.9771.785
282.9201.737
292.8721.685
302.8151.626
312.7711.575
322.7291.522
332.6851.482
342.6431.446
352.6001.392
362.5491.353
372.4991.313
382.4671.277
392.4291.247
402.3971.209
412.3651.173
422.3271.147
432.2931.125
442.2601.096
452.2351.070
462.2071.040
472.1761.015
482.1480.982
492.1150.957
502.0840.931
512.0600.908
522.0300.885
531.9990.858
541.9660.834
551.9370.807
561.9130.779
571.8820.761
581.8520.744
591.8270.726
601.7920.701
611.7560.678
621.7220.661
631.6950.645
641.6660.626
651.6340.612
661.6060.597
671.5780.583
681.5500.566
691.5280.548
701.5000.535
711.4710.518
721.4440.505
731.4160.489
741.3980.475
751.3670.460
761.3450.447
771.3220.433
781.2920.419
791.2610.407
801.2380.391
811.2090.376
821.1750.362
831.1480.347
841.1200.334
851.0890.323
861.0560.308
871.0220.293
880.9830.281
890.9510.267
900.9210.252
910.8850.237
920.8450.221
930.7930.204
940.7470.183
950.6980.168
960.6470.152
970.5850.128
980.5280.108
990.4360.086


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence