Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Oct0.5020.1880.5100.0260.2030.188
Oct-Nov1.1725.2020.9740.0490.8215.202
Oct-Dec1.8519.5801.4240.0731.4669.580

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.1173.716
203.1422.511
302.5671.871
402.1271.392
501.7561.063
601.4440.788
701.1550.590
800.8790.420
900.5650.260

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.1917.405
26.1536.184
35.5575.711
45.1795.327
54.9435.045
64.7624.657
74.5574.388
84.4174.140
94.2493.896
104.1173.716
113.9823.567
123.8723.405
133.7673.284
143.6343.164
153.5433.033
163.4522.930
173.3612.812
183.2852.693
193.2102.591
203.1422.511
213.0932.434
223.0332.350
232.9712.292
242.8892.209
252.8262.157
262.7632.113
272.7182.047
282.6661.995
292.6141.936
302.5671.871
312.5191.813
322.4741.755
332.4261.709
342.3811.665
352.3451.606
362.3061.559
372.2651.513
382.2081.471
392.1701.436
402.1271.392
412.0831.350
422.0471.319
432.0051.293
441.9651.258
451.9241.227
461.8881.193
471.8521.162
481.8251.123
491.7901.094
501.7561.063
511.7291.035
521.6951.007
531.6570.975
541.6250.945
551.5940.916
561.5620.880
571.5300.859
581.4960.839
591.4670.816
601.4440.788
611.4140.759
621.3740.739
631.3470.720
641.3180.698
651.2910.680
661.2660.663
671.2280.646
681.2020.626
691.1780.605
701.1550.590
711.1280.569
721.0990.553
731.0710.535
741.0390.519
751.0150.501
760.9900.485
770.9640.469
780.9360.453
790.9000.439
800.8790.420
810.8510.403
820.8160.387
830.7900.369
840.7590.354
850.7290.341
860.7030.324
870.6680.307
880.6290.294
890.5920.278
900.5650.260
910.5350.245
920.4930.226
930.4560.207
940.4190.184
950.3770.168
960.3490.151
970.2860.125
980.2390.104
990.1710.081


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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