Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Product list for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Sep0.6190.5770.3430.0290.2082.619
Sep-Oct1.1211.0870.7260.0550.4487.171
Sep-Nov1.7851.5510.9770.0771.1008.623

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.2173.558
202.5382.226
302.1081.626
401.7891.209
501.5380.931
601.3280.701
701.1200.535
800.9140.391
900.6790.252

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.82010.347
24.9857.595
34.4906.668
44.2025.964
53.9835.456
63.7954.864
73.6014.465
83.4314.112
93.3313.789
103.2173.558
113.1273.376
123.0333.186
132.9583.046
142.8842.902
152.8362.763
162.7622.656
172.7012.524
182.6492.405
192.5982.303
202.5382.226
212.4932.149
222.4482.063
232.4042.014
242.3561.936
252.2981.888
262.2541.848
272.2131.785
282.1741.737
292.1401.685
302.1081.626
312.0801.575
322.0461.522
332.0131.482
341.9781.446
351.9431.392
361.9071.353
371.8761.313
381.8461.277
391.8241.247
401.7891.209
411.7571.173
421.7321.147
431.7111.125
441.6921.096
451.6661.070
461.6401.040
471.6131.015
481.5870.982
491.5580.957
501.5380.931
511.5160.908
521.4950.885
531.4740.858
541.4500.834
551.4310.807
561.4070.779
571.3870.761
581.3680.744
591.3500.726
601.3280.701
611.3050.678
621.2820.661
631.2650.645
641.2410.626
651.2200.612
661.1960.597
671.1760.583
681.1570.566
691.1410.548
701.1200.535
711.1010.518
721.0790.505
731.0610.489
741.0380.475
751.0200.460
761.0010.447
770.9800.433
780.9600.419
790.9380.407
800.9140.391
810.8910.376
820.8700.362
830.8510.347
840.8230.334
850.7960.323
860.7740.308
870.7550.293
880.7240.281
890.7050.267
900.6790.252
910.6520.237
920.6250.221
930.5910.204
940.5630.183
950.5220.168
960.4900.152
970.4360.128
980.3930.108
990.3190.086


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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