Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb1.0160.4170.1980.0311.43612.769
Feb-Mar1.4142.2130.4060.0561.83614.088
Feb-Apr1.6992.6360.5930.0832.05314.989

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.2742.730
201.5601.766
301.1971.317
400.9260.998
500.7360.781
600.5870.597
700.4500.464
800.3280.345
900.2000.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.2477.188
24.2315.449
33.7744.839
43.4484.378
53.1594.047
62.9243.635
72.6923.363
82.5223.120
92.3762.892
102.2742.730
112.1752.601
122.0842.465
132.0072.364
141.9402.265
151.8722.161
161.7942.082
171.7391.990
181.6771.900
191.6291.824
201.5601.766
211.5101.711
221.4591.649
231.4231.610
241.3911.550
251.3491.515
261.3221.484
271.2911.437
281.2551.401
291.2281.361
301.1971.317
311.1571.278
321.1301.238
331.1031.208
341.0791.179
351.0491.139
361.0241.108
371.0001.078
380.9761.050
390.9511.027
400.9260.998
410.9040.970
420.8870.950
430.8660.932
440.8500.909
450.8320.889
460.8160.866
470.7960.847
480.7750.821
490.7550.801
500.7360.781
510.7230.762
520.7020.744
530.6860.723
540.6670.704
550.6550.683
560.6430.660
570.6270.646
580.6110.632
590.6000.617
600.5870.597
610.5720.579
620.5600.565
630.5470.553
640.5320.538
650.5200.526
660.5060.514
670.4910.503
680.4770.489
690.4600.474
700.4500.464
710.4350.450
720.4210.439
730.4090.426
740.3960.415
750.3850.402
760.3740.391
770.3630.380
780.3500.369
790.3390.358
800.3280.345
810.3150.333
820.3020.321
830.2880.308
840.2760.297
850.2640.288
860.2490.276
870.2350.263
880.2230.253
890.2080.241
900.2000.228
910.1820.216
920.1690.202
930.1540.187
940.1420.169
950.1270.156
960.1090.142
970.0890.121
980.0630.103
990.0270.083


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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