Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Mar0.3981.7960.2090.0250.4001.454
Mar-Apr0.6832.2190.3960.0520.6172.514
Mar-May1.0422.6390.5750.0820.8273.830

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.4451.978
201.0631.370
300.8531.065
400.7060.835
500.5790.671
600.4710.527
700.3850.416
800.2920.314
900.1910.207

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13.0144.365
22.4163.482
32.1853.164
41.9812.915
51.8262.739
61.7262.506
71.6422.349
81.5752.209
91.5092.075
101.4451.978
111.3981.900
121.3441.815
131.3041.753
141.2561.692
151.2081.626
161.1711.575
171.1461.517
181.1201.459
191.0841.409
201.0631.370
211.0411.333
221.0101.293
230.9861.265
240.9661.226
250.9461.201
260.9251.180
270.9071.148
280.8871.124
290.8691.095
300.8531.065
310.8351.037
320.8191.009
330.8020.988
340.7870.967
350.7750.938
360.7610.916
370.7430.893
380.7310.873
390.7190.856
400.7060.835
410.6930.814
420.6790.799
430.6650.786
440.6510.769
450.6400.754
460.6280.737
470.6140.721
480.6010.702
490.5900.687
500.5790.671
510.5690.657
520.5580.642
530.5450.626
540.5350.611
550.5220.595
560.5120.576
570.5000.565
580.4900.554
590.4800.542
600.4710.527
610.4620.511
620.4530.500
630.4440.490
640.4360.477
650.4260.468
660.4190.458
670.4100.449
680.4030.437
690.3940.425
700.3850.416
710.3760.404
720.3680.395
730.3580.384
740.3480.374
750.3370.364
760.3290.354
770.3210.344
780.3130.334
790.3030.325
800.2920.314
810.2820.303
820.2720.292
830.2620.281
840.2520.271
850.2410.263
860.2330.251
870.2230.240
880.2110.230
890.2000.219
900.1910.207
910.1780.195
920.1640.182
930.1520.167
940.1380.150
950.1220.137
960.1020.123
970.0850.101
980.0600.083
990.0240.061


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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