Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara


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Historical and exceedance probability for Halls Creek at Bingara ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2010) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Apr0.2850.4230.1870.0300.2171.061
Apr-May0.6440.8430.3660.0570.4262.377
Apr-Jun0.9341.2600.5390.0790.6983.514

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.2441.775
200.9921.276
300.8331.020
400.7180.823
500.6240.677
600.5420.544
700.4690.439
800.3850.337
900.2910.223

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.3223.958
21.8503.080
31.6792.787
41.5912.567
51.5042.410
61.4462.214
71.3842.083
81.3371.966
91.2941.855
101.2441.775
111.2101.710
121.1831.642
131.1561.591
141.1301.540
151.1021.486
161.0681.445
171.0411.396
181.0251.348
191.0061.307
200.9921.276
210.9721.245
220.9541.211
230.9381.189
240.9201.155
250.9051.135
260.8881.118
270.8731.091
280.8571.069
290.8441.046
300.8331.020
310.8220.997
320.8080.973
330.7960.954
340.7850.937
350.7760.912
360.7630.893
370.7540.874
380.7410.856
390.7310.842
400.7180.823
410.7090.805
420.7000.791
430.6880.780
440.6780.765
450.6700.751
460.6600.736
470.6520.723
480.6440.705
490.6350.692
500.6240.677
510.6150.664
520.6080.652
530.6010.636
540.5920.623
550.5850.608
560.5750.591
570.5680.581
580.5600.570
590.5510.559
600.5420.544
610.5350.530
620.5290.520
630.5200.510
640.5130.498
650.5060.489
660.4980.480
670.4920.471
680.4850.459
690.4770.447
700.4690.439
710.4590.428
720.4510.418
730.4430.408
740.4330.398
750.4240.387
760.4180.378
770.4130.367
780.4030.358
790.3940.349
800.3850.337
810.3750.325
820.3670.315
830.3580.303
840.3500.292
850.3410.283
860.3310.271
870.3230.259
880.3120.249
890.3010.237
900.2910.223
910.2800.211
920.2680.196
930.2540.179
940.2420.159
950.2290.144
960.2100.127
970.1880.101
980.1620.078
990.1360.050


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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