Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10503.044514.689
20441.232439.821
30397.259390.641
40359.790344.571
50327.402304.430
60296.287261.563
70262.106221.758
80226.596177.839
90180.136123.123

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1669.141703.511
2626.978643.465
3598.521619.873
4577.396600.438
5558.418586.011
6542.632565.872
7530.342551.645
8521.598538.276
9511.234524.849
10503.044514.689
11495.175506.203
12487.386496.766
13480.228489.552
14472.871482.271
15467.224474.200
16460.332467.740
17456.033460.131
18450.385452.305
19445.450445.349
20441.232439.821
21436.153434.437
22430.765428.395
23426.371424.137
24422.594417.878
25418.437413.924
26413.646410.498
27409.869405.245
28405.788401.039
29401.553396.112
30397.259390.641
31393.134385.588
32389.097380.407
33384.824376.281
34381.159372.182
35378.068366.502
36374.020361.916
37370.605357.296
38367.011352.948
39362.799349.347
40359.790344.571
41356.542339.906
42353.730336.420
43350.279333.461
44347.422329.366
45343.752325.649
46340.570321.453
47337.593317.610
48333.943312.541
49330.678308.663
50327.402304.430
51324.516300.550
52321.377296.630
53317.959291.995
54314.860287.513
55311.516282.912
56307.839277.261
57304.972273.883
58301.814270.440
59299.230266.626
60296.287261.563
61292.695256.443
62289.633252.662
63285.247249.098
64281.782244.675
65278.102241.196
66274.879237.607
67271.471234.225
68267.785229.767
69264.990225.131
70262.106221.758
71258.747217.095
72255.530213.318
73252.631208.836
74249.164204.784
75245.681200.240
76241.597196.133
77238.609191.605
78234.610187.373
79231.176183.276
80226.596177.839
81223.076172.658
82218.790167.664
83213.796161.918
84209.560157.042
85204.634152.769
86200.370146.947
87196.033140.863
88190.659135.907
89185.670129.892
90180.136123.123
91174.580116.732
92167.438109.105
93158.825100.892
94149.96690.798
95142.73883.521
96134.38475.125
97121.49162.902
98105.92552.473
9982.47440.552


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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