Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10154.515168.089
20125.179130.270
30106.952110.135
4094.37494.037
5083.15381.848
6072.82170.416
7063.84661.003
8053.78251.646
9041.82540.877

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1259.718319.323
2222.429260.399
3206.668240.340
4191.858224.980
5183.226214.215
6176.981200.042
7169.732190.597
8163.448182.128
9158.946173.999
10154.515168.089
11150.607163.307
12146.674158.146
13143.966154.312
14140.905150.535
15138.169146.455
16134.369143.269
17131.595139.604
18129.201135.932
19127.201132.748
20125.179130.270
21123.009127.901
22121.220125.292
23119.245123.485
24117.265120.876
25115.101119.255
26113.303117.869
27111.923115.773
28110.478114.121
29108.867112.215
30106.952110.135
31105.645108.248
32104.675106.345
33103.096104.853
34101.474103.390
35100.112101.396
3699.14399.813
3797.68698.242
3896.58196.786
3995.50695.595
4094.37494.037
4193.16492.538
4292.08991.433
4391.09290.505
4489.87389.234
4588.93488.096
4687.62686.827
4786.28585.679
4885.15984.187
4984.41183.061
5083.15381.848
5182.14380.751
5281.36379.655
5380.27278.377
5479.10977.157
5578.13075.923
5677.04174.431
5775.87073.551
5874.69572.664
5973.87771.691
6072.82170.416
6171.85269.146
6270.88568.220
6370.08167.356
6469.22766.296
6568.64365.472
6667.87164.629
6766.93763.842
6866.01662.817
6965.04661.763
7063.84661.003
7162.82659.965
7261.91359.132
7360.97458.154
7460.01857.278
7558.99256.306
7657.82155.436
7756.82654.485
7855.85153.604
7954.68352.759
8053.78251.646
8152.92850.597
8251.69049.593
8350.76648.448
8449.61347.483
8548.53446.641
8647.10045.501
8745.94544.316
8844.45943.353
8943.14442.188
9041.82540.877
9140.65139.637
9239.29138.152
9337.81536.538
9435.68934.524
9533.83333.042
9631.74531.287
9728.99228.614
9826.27526.175
9921.87223.119


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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