Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10448.349471.104
20393.408402.252
30358.436357.175
40325.607315.138
50296.370278.742
60268.169240.213
70238.913204.850
80204.600166.366
90157.870119.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1588.265645.191
2555.095589.801
3530.071568.043
4505.419550.123
5491.792536.821
6481.635518.258
7473.165505.146
8463.220492.828
9456.135480.460
10448.349471.104
11442.204463.291
12435.519454.605
13429.196447.966
14424.229441.267
15418.612433.844
16412.736427.904
17407.842420.910
18403.709413.718
19398.738407.329
20393.408402.252
21389.366397.311
22385.850391.766
23382.050387.859
24378.245382.120
25375.334378.495
26371.407375.356
27367.737370.543
28364.520366.691
29361.910362.181
30358.436357.175
31354.546352.553
32351.292347.818
33348.598344.048
34345.540340.304
35341.988335.120
36339.376330.937
37335.843326.725
38332.167322.764
39329.468319.484
40325.607315.138
41322.564310.895
42320.083307.726
43317.170305.039
44314.291301.321
45311.807297.949
46308.512294.144
47305.678290.663
48301.775286.074
49298.996282.567
50296.370278.742
51292.872275.238
52289.778271.701
53287.466267.524
54284.425263.488
55281.564259.350
56279.093254.274
57276.731251.244
58273.949248.157
59270.772244.742
60268.169240.213
61265.977235.640
62263.004232.268
63259.663229.092
64256.520225.156
65253.378222.064
66250.345218.877
67247.691215.878
68244.661211.929
69241.749207.829
70238.913204.850
71235.111200.737
72231.264197.410
73228.185193.468
74224.968189.909
75221.835185.924
76218.273182.327
77214.463178.368
78211.601174.673
79207.874171.100
80204.600166.366
81200.892161.862
82196.860157.526
83192.512152.545
84188.795148.324
85184.273144.628
86178.553139.596
87172.958134.343
88167.878130.065
89162.361124.874
90157.870119.031
91152.247113.509
92143.998106.909
93134.57099.779
94125.59790.972
95117.90984.580
96107.75277.146
9796.68466.168
9882.43056.606
9960.61645.367


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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