Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10379.836455.942
20331.456387.659
30297.840344.131
40270.137304.187
50245.033269.897
60220.659233.559
70194.900199.685
80165.462161.313
90129.804109.070

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1514.383640.279
2467.769579.683
3446.955556.390
4432.774537.416
5419.724523.453
6410.790504.138
7401.782490.613
8392.369477.995
9386.000465.408
10379.836455.942
11374.572448.072
12367.436439.361
13363.516432.730
14358.601426.061
15353.233418.698
16348.141412.825
17343.512405.932
18339.381398.870
19335.345392.614
20331.456387.659
21327.933382.846
22324.950377.457
23321.864373.670
24318.091368.116
25314.819364.616
26311.475361.589
27307.999356.955
28304.826353.254
29302.372348.927
30297.840344.131
31294.561339.714
32291.163335.194
33287.458331.602
34284.980328.038
35282.779323.112
36280.441319.141
37278.597315.149
38275.792311.398
39272.729308.295
40270.137304.187
41268.116300.181
42264.954297.191
43262.299294.656
44260.150291.152
45257.678287.975
46255.053284.392
47252.034281.114
48249.719276.796
49247.249273.496
50245.033269.897
51242.551266.601
52240.283263.273
53238.171259.341
54235.204255.540
55232.655251.641
56229.776246.854
57227.476243.994
58225.862241.078
59222.983237.848
60220.659233.559
61217.719229.220
62215.476226.015
63212.938222.990
64210.685219.234
65208.450216.278
66206.177213.224
67203.245210.342
68200.679206.539
69198.087202.575
70194.900199.685
71192.048195.682
72189.162192.429
73185.736188.558
74182.619185.047
75180.704181.094
76177.954177.507
77175.143173.533
78172.569169.801
79168.605166.167
80165.462161.313
81162.060156.648
82158.367152.113
83154.281146.840
84151.246142.315
85148.018138.308
86144.616132.777
87141.028126.901
88136.600122.032
89133.313116.011
90129.804109.070
91124.526102.333
92119.78594.019
93113.39884.674
94107.41272.506
95101.01563.161
9692.19351.630
9783.07232.972
9870.44714.620
9953.6460.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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