Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10260.888351.005
20224.363295.977
30199.692259.803
40178.940225.888
50159.808196.319
60141.425164.758
70123.664135.568
80103.549103.788
9077.56165.886

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1350.726489.698
2324.655445.599
3314.680428.271
4302.398413.997
5291.418403.400
6283.922388.607
7276.758378.156
8271.886368.335
9265.606358.470
10260.888351.005
11257.137344.770
12252.837337.835
13248.211332.534
14244.733327.183
15241.989321.251
16238.104316.503
17233.808310.910
18230.035305.156
19226.567300.042
20224.363295.977
21221.246292.019
22218.103287.576
23214.790284.444
24212.225279.841
25210.112276.932
26208.138274.413
27206.398270.548
28204.234267.454
29201.629263.829
30199.692259.803
31197.158256.084
32195.374252.271
33192.973249.234
34190.940246.217
35188.671242.036
36186.547238.660
37184.884235.258
38183.196232.057
39181.379229.405
40178.940225.888
41177.000222.452
42174.722219.884
43172.987217.705
44170.974214.688
45169.138211.951
46167.147208.859
47165.326206.028
48163.055202.294
49161.547199.437
50159.808196.319
51158.068193.461
52156.339190.573
53154.642187.159
54152.713183.858
55150.963180.470
56149.139176.309
57147.179173.823
58145.406171.289
59143.205168.482
60141.425164.758
61140.215160.994
62137.985158.216
63136.482155.597
64134.741152.350
65132.862149.797
66131.116147.166
67129.558144.687
68127.621141.423
69125.858138.032
70123.664135.568
71121.794132.165
72119.652129.411
73117.695126.150
74116.163123.206
75113.980119.911
76112.032116.939
77110.481113.670
78108.594110.623
79106.436107.680
80103.549103.788
81101.062100.095
8299.44296.551
8397.08292.494
8494.75789.071
8592.24486.087
8689.54882.047
8786.46777.860
8883.91574.478
8980.76470.410
9077.56165.886
9174.96761.670
9272.05556.715
9368.33651.480
9463.76745.203
9559.51340.793
9655.04035.831
9748.53028.870
9839.21423.194
9928.06517.029


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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