Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1061.63684.963
2050.67466.684
3043.64456.173
4038.08247.393
5033.33340.539
6029.47633.968
7025.33228.467
8021.28822.934
9015.96316.508

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
199.041141.544
286.467122.200
380.115114.902
475.624109.037
572.612104.774
669.94398.961
767.73594.955
865.37091.270
963.43287.649
1061.63684.963
1160.22182.756
1258.88080.342
1357.67278.525
1456.77376.716
1555.51974.741
1654.32073.183
1753.11671.374
1852.40769.542
1951.54867.940
2050.67466.684
2149.77365.475
2249.14864.136
2348.33563.202
2447.56661.847
2546.90861.000
2646.28060.274
2745.58959.170
2845.04058.296
2944.28457.283
3043.64456.173
3143.24955.160
3242.69854.135
3342.10353.327
3441.58952.533
3541.01351.446
3640.45750.580
3739.83549.717
3839.25348.914
3938.62148.256
4038.08247.393
4137.57546.559
4236.99445.943
4336.50645.424
4436.06044.712
4535.52144.073
4635.04343.359
4734.62442.711
4834.26241.867
4933.77141.229
5033.33340.539
5132.95939.914
5232.58339.289
5332.22938.557
5431.85337.859
5531.43837.150
5631.02736.290
5730.57235.783
5830.20635.270
5929.83834.707
6029.47633.968
6129.03133.230
6228.71532.691
6328.29632.188
6427.97631.569
6527.55331.087
6627.15930.595
6726.64030.134
6826.26529.532
6925.78428.913
7025.33228.467
7124.96827.856
7224.57627.365
7324.14826.788
7423.70526.271
7523.29625.696
7622.86925.181
7722.46624.618
7822.10424.096
7921.78223.594
8021.28822.934
8120.73822.310
8220.27321.713
8319.87621.030
8419.39520.455
8518.95019.953
8618.38219.273
8717.84818.565
8817.18617.989
8916.64517.292
9015.96316.508
9115.40515.765
9214.82414.875
9314.06013.908
9413.26712.700
9512.62611.811
9611.77710.759
9710.4109.156
988.9887.695
997.0085.866


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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