Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1063.30484.963
2052.09966.684
3045.02556.173
4039.34747.393
5034.42540.539
6030.42933.968
7026.23628.467
8022.05322.934
9016.59216.508

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1101.553141.544
288.833122.200
382.120114.902
477.404109.037
574.633104.774
671.98298.961
769.46794.955
867.13691.270
965.31587.649
1063.30484.963
1161.82482.756
1260.58180.342
1359.32678.525
1458.38676.716
1557.09574.741
1655.83373.183
1754.65271.374
1853.99369.542
1953.01467.940
2052.09966.684
2151.21365.475
2250.49964.136
2349.78263.202
2449.01861.847
2548.26661.000
2647.70160.274
2746.99359.170
2846.40958.296
2945.62157.283
3045.02556.173
3144.56455.160
3244.01254.135
3343.31853.327
3442.89352.533
3542.23151.446
3641.69450.580
3741.04449.717
3840.44348.914
3939.85148.256
4039.34747.393
4138.74446.559
4238.13845.943
4337.64145.424
4437.17944.712
4536.67144.073
4636.16443.359
4735.72542.711
4835.31841.867
4934.90941.229
5034.42540.539
5134.00139.914
5233.66239.289
5333.29638.557
5432.94137.859
5532.48437.150
5632.05636.290
5731.58335.783
5831.22735.270
5930.82334.707
6030.42933.968
6130.08733.230
6229.66532.691
6329.31732.188
6428.88231.569
6528.50031.087
6628.10530.595
6727.57730.134
6827.14929.532
6926.69628.913
7026.23628.467
7125.81227.856
7225.46227.365
7325.05026.788
7424.53926.271
7524.06225.696
7623.70625.181
7723.30124.618
7822.92924.096
7922.55423.594
8022.05322.934
8121.50722.310
8221.01221.713
8320.63121.030
8420.11220.455
8519.64719.953
8619.04719.273
8718.51118.565
8817.86517.989
8917.24017.292
9016.59216.508
9116.02715.765
9215.42714.875
9314.66413.908
9413.82012.700
9513.17511.811
9612.27010.759
9710.8429.156
989.4587.695
997.3695.866


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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