Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.59874.161
2045.14958.322
3038.78449.342
4034.12641.941
5029.78236.241
6026.19630.851
7022.47826.405
8018.75722.001
9013.86316.987

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.380123.951
275.455106.879
369.560100.443
466.10595.276
563.21991.524
661.18286.415
758.87482.901
857.57679.673
955.87376.506
1054.59874.161
1153.34872.237
1252.38970.135
1350.97868.556
1450.10066.986
1549.14665.274
1648.30263.925
1747.29462.362
1846.51460.782
1945.86659.402
2045.14958.322
2144.31257.283
2243.60456.134
2342.86455.335
2442.30054.175
2541.62853.452
2641.06452.831
2740.49451.890
2839.96351.146
2939.45450.285
3038.78449.342
3138.21748.483
3237.78747.615
3337.37146.932
3436.79746.262
3536.46045.345
3635.83144.616
3735.43143.890
3834.98943.216
3934.54242.664
4034.12641.941
4133.63541.244
4233.10840.729
4332.67740.296
4432.12939.703
4531.79839.171
4631.33738.577
4730.90638.039
4830.54237.340
4930.11936.811
5029.78236.241
5129.43235.725
5229.02235.209
5328.70334.607
5428.39234.033
5528.03133.451
5627.71332.747
5727.31232.332
5826.90831.913
5926.58531.453
6026.19630.851
6125.76430.251
6225.35829.814
6325.04929.405
6424.70428.904
6524.30728.515
6623.97728.117
6723.64327.745
6823.26927.261
6922.92626.763
7022.47826.405
7122.18525.915
7221.80125.522
7321.32625.061
7420.93124.648
7520.57124.190
7620.25723.781
7719.91323.334
7819.50922.920
7919.19522.523
8018.75722.001
8118.26021.509
8217.69121.039
8317.23620.504
8416.76120.053
8516.27719.661
8615.80419.130
8715.32518.579
8814.77118.132
8914.34417.593
9013.86316.987
9113.40416.416
9212.71715.733
9312.13414.994
9411.39414.076
9510.73613.404
969.96012.612
978.87111.414
987.30610.331
995.1898.989


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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