Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.129106.087
2059.63880.976
3050.76567.778
4044.27357.327
5038.84749.485
6034.12142.192
7029.61736.241
8024.77530.378
9019.09923.710

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.298209.414
2107.399168.702
398.938154.962
493.435144.487
588.593137.171
685.223127.573
782.313121.199
879.025115.500
976.772110.044
1074.129106.087
1171.991102.891
1270.01799.449
1368.32896.896
1466.90194.384
1565.23391.676
1664.29289.564
1763.26187.138
1862.01984.711
1960.89782.609
2059.63880.976
2158.57079.417
2257.62077.701
2356.73276.514
2455.86174.802
2554.88773.740
2654.01372.832
2753.23271.460
2852.33270.380
2951.54669.135
3050.76567.778
3150.15166.547
3249.16065.308
3348.62264.338
3447.78663.387
3547.21562.092
3646.64161.066
3746.08060.048
3845.47359.105
3944.93858.334
4044.27357.327
4143.73256.360
4243.04755.646
4342.43355.048
4441.90054.230
4541.27953.497
4640.81952.680
4740.31851.943
4839.83550.985
4939.39350.263
5038.84749.485
5138.26248.782
5237.74648.081
5337.28947.264
5436.88046.485
5536.31445.697
5635.80944.746
5735.43544.186
5834.86443.621
5934.43543.002
6034.12142.192
6133.65041.386
6233.22240.799
6332.70040.252
6432.18039.581
6531.80239.060
6631.36538.527
6730.93438.031
6830.50037.383
6929.99736.719
7029.61736.241
7129.05735.587
7228.61535.064
7328.12734.449
7427.64533.900
7527.13233.290
7626.63232.745
7726.21932.150
7825.71431.600
7925.27831.072
8024.77530.378
8124.20029.724
8223.65329.100
8323.05228.388
8422.51127.789
8521.97027.268
8621.57926.562
8721.17025.829
8820.56825.235
8919.76424.517
9019.09923.710
9118.39622.949
9217.80722.039
9317.01321.052
9416.10219.824
9515.28518.923
9614.11117.860
9712.62516.247
9811.33214.784
999.16512.961


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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