Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10280.188283.640
20230.544220.513
30200.715186.367
40175.986158.879
50156.269137.998
60137.477118.385
70120.444102.239
80103.09486.209
9080.11167.815

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1452.409516.044
2395.940429.811
3371.069399.146
4348.990375.233
5334.998358.256
6318.685335.644
7307.372320.414
8295.089306.654
9286.363293.358
10280.188283.640
11274.316275.743
12268.974267.193
13262.733260.820
14258.024254.526
15252.529247.712
16247.999242.378
17242.911236.230
18238.732230.055
19235.033224.692
20230.544220.513
21227.395216.511
22225.001212.100
23221.144209.041
24218.154204.620
25214.917201.871
26211.990199.518
27209.249195.957
28206.338193.149
29203.427189.908
30200.715186.367
31197.876183.151
32195.308179.907
33192.386177.362
34189.485174.866
35186.506171.462
36183.865168.757
37181.752166.073
38180.090163.582
39177.675161.545
40175.986158.879
41173.990156.314
42171.895154.422
43170.034152.832
44167.793150.657
45165.981148.707
46163.874146.532
47161.731144.565
48159.724142.007
49158.017140.077
50156.269137.998
51154.147136.115
52152.285134.235
53150.628132.043
54148.410129.951
55146.817127.834
56144.933125.274
57143.124123.764
58141.247122.241
59139.246120.572
60137.477118.385
61135.522116.205
62133.940114.617
63132.372113.135
64130.660111.316
65128.721109.902
66127.155108.457
67125.835107.107
68124.323105.348
69121.984103.540
70120.444102.239
71118.890100.458
72117.29499.030
73115.83397.354
74113.93695.853
75112.12594.188
76110.58792.697
77108.82891.068
78106.95289.561
79104.90088.113
80103.09486.209
81101.67184.413
8299.36282.697
8397.11980.738
8494.51279.089
8592.05577.651
8689.89375.704
8786.88773.680
8884.49172.038
8982.20270.050
9080.11167.815
9177.48565.704
9274.60163.175
9370.75260.431
9467.87057.010
9564.35754.494
9660.33751.520
9755.83346.999
9850.62042.883
9941.12837.739


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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