Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10444.070471.104
20389.110402.252
30354.142357.175
40321.503315.138
50292.030278.742
60264.154240.213
70234.850204.850
80200.544166.366
90154.350119.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1583.939645.191
2550.167589.801
3524.987568.043
4501.124550.123
5487.887536.821
6477.014518.258
7469.011505.146
8458.792492.828
9451.901480.460
10444.070471.104
11437.469463.291
12431.424454.605
13424.951447.966
14419.661441.267
15413.915433.844
16408.184427.904
17403.502420.910
18399.410413.718
19394.655407.329
20389.110402.252
21385.077397.311
22381.463391.766
23377.738387.859
24374.175382.120
25371.076378.495
26367.046375.356
27363.498370.543
28360.395366.691
29357.410362.181
30354.142357.175
31350.294352.553
32346.895347.818
33344.142344.048
34341.381340.304
35337.817335.120
36335.307330.937
37331.599326.725
38327.703322.764
39325.014319.484
40321.503315.138
41318.295310.895
42315.773307.726
43312.629305.039
44310.068301.321
45307.610297.949
46304.251294.144
47301.709290.663
48297.699286.074
49294.491282.567
50292.030278.742
51288.595275.238
52285.791271.701
53283.009267.524
54280.443263.488
55277.471259.350
56275.032254.274
57272.647251.244
58269.858248.157
59266.630244.742
60264.154240.213
61262.068235.640
62258.840232.268
63255.507229.092
64252.640225.156
65249.188222.064
66245.928218.877
67243.343215.878
68240.620211.929
69237.778207.829
70234.850204.850
71231.248200.737
72227.357197.410
73224.117193.468
74221.003189.909
75218.215185.924
76214.417182.327
77210.857178.368
78207.575174.673
79203.902171.100
80200.544166.366
81197.308161.862
82193.176157.526
83188.959152.545
84184.970148.324
85180.503144.628
86174.708139.596
87169.065134.343
88164.516130.065
89159.009124.874
90154.350119.031
91148.877113.509
92140.852106.909
93131.40299.779
94122.67890.972
95114.39784.580
96104.20877.146
9793.21066.168
9879.47456.606
9958.31845.367


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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