Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10545.417514.689
20481.924439.821
30438.052390.641
40397.185344.571
50364.463304.430
60331.327261.563
70296.303221.758
80257.278177.839
90205.795123.123

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1725.038703.511
2666.243643.465
3640.843619.873
4619.946600.438
5604.895586.011
6589.469565.872
7576.501551.645
8564.077538.276
9554.102524.849
10545.417514.689
11538.595506.203
12530.556496.766
13522.700489.552
14515.584482.271
15509.211474.200
16504.003467.740
17498.797460.131
18493.465452.305
19487.027445.349
20481.924439.821
21476.835434.437
22472.561428.395
23467.469424.137
24462.763417.878
25458.516413.924
26454.597410.498
27450.646405.245
28445.827401.039
29441.905396.112
30438.052390.641
31434.048385.588
32428.861380.407
33425.164376.281
34421.374372.182
35417.511366.502
36413.365361.916
37409.061357.296
38404.723352.948
39401.317349.347
40397.185344.571
41393.969339.906
42389.938336.420
43386.772333.461
44383.532329.366
45380.939325.649
46376.520321.453
47374.234317.610
48370.547312.541
49367.860308.663
50364.463304.430
51360.895300.550
52358.003296.630
53354.187291.995
54350.640287.513
55347.918282.912
56344.985277.261
57341.670273.883
58338.415270.440
59335.302266.626
60331.327261.563
61327.555256.443
62324.055252.662
63320.724249.098
64318.023244.675
65314.538241.196
66311.372237.607
67307.659234.225
68304.607229.767
69299.622225.131
70296.303221.758
71293.651217.095
72290.099213.318
73286.436208.836
74282.720204.784
75278.747200.240
76274.931196.133
77271.080191.605
78265.905187.373
79262.193183.276
80257.278177.839
81253.516172.658
82248.496167.664
83243.390161.918
84237.692157.042
85233.361152.769
86229.220146.947
87222.324140.863
88217.070135.907
89211.870129.892
90205.795123.123
91199.454116.732
92192.430109.105
93185.734100.892
94177.45990.798
95167.36983.521
96156.22775.125
97144.54562.902
98128.13952.473
99103.33040.552


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence