Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.976142.941
2059.734110.389
3051.33692.422
4044.47377.656
5038.92066.191
6033.65355.173
7028.18945.873
8022.70136.384
9015.64425.091

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1118.585263.112
2104.720217.768
397.105201.952
491.613189.691
587.748181.014
684.826169.478
781.892161.714
879.432154.696
976.942147.908
1074.976142.941
1172.594138.898
1270.515134.515
1368.925131.242
1467.028128.004
1565.240124.492
1664.013121.738
1762.897118.557
1861.945115.355
1960.785112.567
2059.734110.389
2158.864108.301
2257.902105.994
2357.164104.391
2456.367102.070
2555.459100.624
2654.54999.384
2753.69197.505
2852.93096.020
2952.08994.303
3051.33692.422
3150.75590.711
3250.00088.980
3349.15687.620
3448.47286.283
3547.65484.455
3646.97183.000
3746.25981.552
3845.63980.206
3945.04679.103
4044.47377.656
4143.99276.260
4243.36175.229
4342.82374.361
4442.26473.170
4541.66472.101
4641.03470.906
4740.45569.824
4839.94868.412
4939.44367.345
5038.92066.191
5138.45765.145
5237.97064.099
5337.36362.875
5436.77661.704
5536.14760.516
5635.67459.075
5735.18058.223
5834.80857.362
5934.10356.416
6033.65355.173
6133.13753.931
6232.67153.023
6332.08252.174
6431.49751.130
6531.01350.316
6630.51549.482
6729.95548.702
6829.36847.683
6928.76446.632
7028.18945.873
7127.60044.833
7227.16043.996
7326.68543.011
7426.05442.127
7525.55541.143
7624.92040.259
7724.36439.291
7823.79438.392
7923.27137.526
8022.70136.384
8122.08535.302
8221.42534.264
8320.67133.075
8419.95332.070
8519.28931.191
8618.42829.995
8717.82928.746
8817.22127.728
8916.40126.490
9015.64425.091
9114.71123.761
9213.75522.158
9312.70120.404
9411.54818.197
9510.13416.558
968.67414.602
976.67611.587
984.5308.795
990.5405.231


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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