Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1059.71374.161
2049.94158.322
3043.05649.342
4037.95741.941
5033.30836.241
6029.45930.851
7025.51726.405
8021.36622.001
9016.06516.987

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.575123.951
280.957106.879
375.294100.443
471.76795.276
568.80591.524
666.44886.415
764.52082.901
862.66979.673
961.16676.506
1059.71374.161
1158.44372.237
1257.12370.135
1356.09068.556
1454.97866.986
1553.91765.274
1652.90563.925
1752.14862.362
1851.43160.782
1950.63859.402
2049.94158.322
2149.02357.283
2248.24656.134
2347.38055.335
2446.79154.175
2546.09353.452
2645.40752.831
2744.83351.890
2844.32351.146
2943.72650.285
3043.05649.342
3142.57748.483
3242.02947.615
3341.60946.932
3441.05546.262
3540.54845.345
3639.96644.616
3739.42743.890
3838.98343.216
3938.52642.664
4037.95741.941
4137.46741.244
4236.99140.729
4336.55040.296
4436.01639.703
4535.49039.171
4634.98038.577
4734.60238.039
4834.10637.340
4933.74136.811
5033.30836.241
5132.96735.725
5232.63135.209
5332.29234.607
5431.92534.033
5531.54733.451
5631.09832.747
5730.70932.332
5830.23631.913
5929.84831.453
6029.45930.851
6129.05430.251
6228.68829.814
6328.25229.405
6427.96628.904
6527.53028.515
6627.05228.117
6726.67727.745
6826.31727.261
6925.94926.763
7025.51726.405
7125.19325.915
7224.78625.522
7324.30725.061
7423.94024.648
7523.56424.190
7623.00023.781
7722.65723.334
7822.31122.920
7921.89622.523
8021.36622.001
8120.87421.509
8220.24321.039
8319.79520.504
8419.26620.053
8518.69019.661
8618.10119.130
8717.63518.579
8817.09218.132
8916.54617.593
9016.06516.987
9115.48216.416
9214.86915.733
9314.12414.994
9413.42514.076
9512.54913.404
9611.74612.612
9710.69711.414
988.85010.331
996.7028.989


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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