Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile150.794138.533
Median210.364207.648
Mean216.589226.993
75% Quartile275.812295.657
Interquartile Range125.018157.124

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1459.362571.638
2426.309511.943
3406.327488.682
4389.615469.625
5376.180455.550
6365.521436.020
7357.950422.315
8350.180409.516
9342.945396.745
10336.992387.143
11331.998379.166
12327.476370.344
13322.643363.637
14317.531356.902
15313.031349.479
16308.541343.570
17304.486336.650
18300.708329.579
19296.157323.336
20292.635318.403
21288.262313.624
22284.594308.292
23281.527304.554
24278.422299.091
25275.825295.658
26272.949292.697
27270.042288.179
28267.053284.582
29264.867280.392
30262.399275.769
31259.757271.529
32256.826267.211
33254.506263.793
34251.218260.417
35248.461255.772
36245.207252.050
37242.480248.325
38239.626244.844
39236.752241.979
40234.341238.203
41231.524234.544
42228.988231.826
43226.745229.533
44223.680226.378
45221.633223.534
46219.470220.344
47217.436217.444
48215.460213.648
49213.008210.768
50210.364207.648
51207.512204.809
52205.520201.962
53202.997198.624
54200.995195.423
55198.656192.166
56196.315188.207
57194.020185.862
58191.448183.487
59189.439180.876
60186.663177.440
61184.247174.002
62181.871171.486
63179.674169.132
64177.498166.235
65175.151163.974
66173.068161.659
67170.688159.493
68168.478156.661
69166.063153.743
70163.227151.637
71160.845148.749
72158.428146.429
73156.005143.698
74153.368141.251
75150.725138.528
76147.541136.088
77145.070133.418
78142.876130.943
79140.481128.564
80137.897125.433
81134.991122.475
82130.863119.646
83128.027116.416
84125.436113.696
85122.336111.325
86118.902108.113
87114.544104.776
88109.999102.069
89106.43898.797
90101.97795.123
9198.17891.659
9291.73987.520
9385.32883.045
9479.40577.493
9574.75773.434
9668.53668.666
9758.96961.490
9845.81155.050
9926.15647.148


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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