Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile280.097181.101
Median352.434269.897
Mean356.220277.463
75% Quartile428.305364.614
Interquartile Range148.208183.513

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1640.476640.279
2599.650579.683
3573.990556.390
4553.994537.416
5540.421523.453
6531.763504.138
7521.854490.613
8512.039477.995
9503.050465.408
10495.970455.942
11489.607448.072
12483.927439.361
13478.295432.730
14473.406426.061
15467.693418.698
16464.174412.825
17459.950405.932
18455.985398.870
19452.205392.614
20447.965387.659
21444.348382.846
22440.182377.457
23436.391373.670
24432.721368.116
25428.312364.616
26424.808361.589
27421.730356.955
28417.377353.254
29413.098348.927
30409.365344.131
31405.901339.714
32403.467335.194
33400.254331.602
34397.462328.038
35394.376323.112
36391.473319.141
37388.184315.149
38385.527311.398
39382.346308.295
40379.357304.187
41376.641300.181
42373.986297.191
43371.417294.656
44368.634291.152
45365.579287.975
46362.585284.392
47359.559281.114
48357.223276.796
49354.663273.496
50352.434269.897
51350.368266.601
52348.287263.273
53345.182259.341
54343.066255.540
55340.576251.641
56337.475246.854
57334.062243.994
58331.095241.078
59328.174237.848
60325.740233.559
61322.760229.220
62319.989226.015
63317.486222.990
64314.613219.234
65310.980216.278
66308.178213.224
67305.269210.342
68302.269206.539
69298.556202.575
70295.307199.685
71291.518195.682
72288.949192.429
73285.996188.558
74282.972185.047
75279.962181.094
76276.587177.507
77273.698173.533
78269.848169.801
79265.819166.167
80261.383161.313
81257.377156.648
82253.604152.113
83249.352146.840
84244.898142.315
85241.335138.308
86237.416132.777
87233.160126.901
88228.150122.032
89222.278116.011
90215.883109.070
91210.745102.333
92205.65194.019
93199.06984.674
94190.02872.506
95181.79963.161
96172.68251.630
97158.69632.972
98145.36414.620
99119.7600.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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