Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile122.92294.190
Median170.391137.998
Mean187.048161.261
75% Quartile233.813201.870
Interquartile Range110.892107.680

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1484.188516.044
2425.639429.811
3398.870399.146
4377.664375.233
5362.489358.256
6344.871335.644
7331.469320.414
8319.422306.654
9310.460293.358
10303.705283.640
11296.154275.743
12290.816267.193
13284.998260.820
14279.703254.526
15274.058247.712
16268.664242.378
17263.900236.230
18259.141230.055
19254.847224.692
20250.766220.513
21247.987216.511
22244.422212.100
23240.393209.041
24237.038204.620
25233.838201.871
26230.475199.518
27227.463195.957
28224.032193.149
29221.047189.908
30218.218186.367
31214.987183.151
32212.563179.907
33209.328177.362
34206.159174.866
35202.485171.462
36200.207168.757
37198.082166.073
38195.445163.582
39192.994161.545
40191.585158.879
41189.609156.314
42187.349154.422
43185.055152.832
44182.819150.657
45180.586148.707
46178.543146.532
47176.061144.565
48174.161142.007
49172.383140.077
50170.391137.998
51168.239136.115
52165.992134.235
53164.010132.043
54162.379129.951
55159.981127.834
56157.982125.274
57156.069123.764
58154.275122.241
59152.173120.572
60150.146118.385
61148.336116.205
62146.368114.617
63144.559113.135
64142.562111.316
65140.903109.902
66139.283108.457
67137.540107.107
68135.777105.348
69133.786103.540
70131.926102.239
71130.242100.458
72128.26299.030
73126.74297.354
74124.84095.853
75122.91894.188
76121.05292.697
77119.32191.068
78117.28789.561
79115.25588.113
80113.10686.209
81111.00284.413
82109.21782.697
83106.50580.738
84103.78179.089
85100.97777.651
8698.42275.704
8795.59873.680
8893.04772.038
8990.44570.050
9088.33967.815
9185.34765.704
9281.88563.175
9378.50060.431
9475.02557.010
9571.52054.494
9667.33351.520
9762.01146.999
9855.79642.883
9946.17137.739


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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