Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile19.06925.697
Median27.89340.539
Mean31.23646.572
75% Quartile39.99461.000
Interquartile Range20.92535.303

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.914141.544
275.417122.200
369.596114.902
465.600109.037
562.590104.774
660.20598.961
758.14794.955
856.17191.270
954.36087.649
1053.04684.963
1151.80882.756
1250.56080.342
1349.64578.525
1448.50776.716
1547.25774.741
1646.27173.183
1745.45571.374
1844.67469.542
1944.05067.940
2043.11866.684
2142.56965.475
2241.80664.136
2341.13763.202
2440.51661.847
2539.99861.000
2639.33760.274
2738.70359.170
2838.05058.296
2937.51657.283
3037.05156.173
3136.53355.160
3236.02354.135
3335.59153.327
3435.12352.533
3534.70351.446
3634.08650.580
3733.58249.717
3833.13348.914
3932.69848.256
4032.17847.393
4131.67746.559
4231.13745.943
4330.74845.424
4430.34544.712
4529.93444.073
4629.51243.359
4729.08142.711
4828.62641.867
4928.25141.229
5027.89340.539
5127.50039.914
5227.15539.289
5326.84538.557
5426.58737.859
5526.19237.150
5625.86436.290
5725.50835.783
5825.20435.270
5924.85634.707
6024.58833.968
6124.11133.230
6223.86332.691
6323.56232.188
6423.17831.569
6522.80831.087
6622.43830.595
6722.01530.134
6821.62129.532
6921.29428.913
7020.95028.467
7120.57027.856
7220.19927.365
7319.86826.788
7419.49626.271
7519.06925.696
7618.74825.181
7718.44624.618
7818.05724.096
7917.68823.594
8017.33222.934
8116.98522.310
8216.58521.713
8316.20221.030
8415.79420.455
8515.40619.953
8614.86419.273
8714.35818.565
8813.89617.989
8913.47317.292
9012.90616.508
9112.33015.765
9211.79114.875
9311.18613.908
9410.61512.700
959.92711.811
969.16610.759
977.9909.156
986.8347.695
994.4755.866


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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