Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Probability distribution for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile33.55025.697
Median46.68340.539
Mean50.95046.572
75% Quartile63.76261.000
Interquartile Range30.21235.303

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1129.321141.544
2112.416122.200
3103.878114.902
499.329109.037
595.823104.774
692.87798.961
789.87194.955
886.94891.270
984.47587.649
1082.43084.963
1180.90082.756
1279.17180.342
1377.65478.525
1476.17776.716
1574.62174.741
1673.06873.183
1771.85871.374
1870.63469.542
1969.80367.940
2068.44266.684
2167.45665.475
2266.50064.136
2365.51663.202
2464.68661.847
2563.77161.000
2662.90660.274
2761.97659.170
2861.22958.296
2960.54357.283
3059.89056.173
3159.05755.160
3258.39754.135
3357.72153.327
3456.89652.533
3556.13251.446
3655.31650.580
3754.62249.717
3853.96648.914
3953.34248.256
4052.64247.393
4151.95946.559
4251.28545.943
4350.60845.424
4450.03344.712
4549.53244.073
4648.96443.359
4748.41942.711
4847.91541.867
4947.21141.229
5046.68340.539
5146.14639.914
5245.68539.289
5345.15438.557
5444.61637.859
5544.16737.150
5643.57836.290
5743.00235.783
5842.48835.270
5942.00334.707
6041.35433.968
6141.01233.230
6240.59032.691
6340.05332.188
6439.39331.569
6538.99031.087
6638.45530.595
6737.88730.134
6837.37929.532
6936.87028.913
7036.42528.467
7135.83627.856
7235.32227.365
7334.67126.788
7434.10226.271
7533.55025.696
7633.00525.181
7732.53424.618
7832.10924.096
7931.42723.594
8030.88722.934
8130.20622.310
8229.44121.713
8328.83921.030
8428.18920.455
8527.68419.953
8627.00719.273
8726.32618.565
8825.44217.989
8924.52717.292
9023.85316.508
9123.12115.765
9222.23414.875
9321.24113.908
9420.33712.700
9519.08011.811
9617.94410.759
9716.5529.156
9814.7587.695
9912.4285.866


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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