Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( May 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May33.54337.1455.93921.764220.551
May-Jun83.26893.87614.95256.654291.392
May-Jul164.919206.67633.745116.641492.586

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10265.718283.640
20218.782220.513
30190.188186.367
40166.739158.879
50147.859137.998
60129.952118.385
70113.634102.239
8097.30586.209
9074.99067.815

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1430.008516.044
2379.356429.811
3352.460399.146
4332.753375.233
5319.222358.256
6303.779335.644
7292.740320.414
8280.439306.654
9272.178293.358
10265.718283.640
11260.647275.743
12256.050267.193
13249.636260.820
14245.064254.526
15239.643247.712
16235.829242.378
17231.105236.230
18226.243230.055
19222.742224.692
20218.782220.513
21215.664216.511
22213.067212.100
23210.118209.041
24207.128204.620
25204.058201.871
26201.041199.518
27198.469195.957
28196.121193.149
29193.520189.908
30190.188186.367
31187.126183.151
32185.215179.907
33182.486177.362
34179.778174.866
35176.731171.462
36174.168168.757
37172.496166.073
38170.445163.582
39168.606161.545
40166.739158.879
41164.540156.314
42162.662154.422
43160.851152.832
44159.207150.657
45157.057148.707
46155.115146.532
47152.829144.565
48151.087142.007
49149.400140.077
50147.859137.998
51145.891136.115
52143.964134.235
53142.407132.043
54140.476129.951
55139.000127.834
56137.174125.274
57135.304123.764
58133.585122.241
59131.836120.572
60129.952118.385
61128.236116.205
62126.656114.617
63124.906113.135
64123.211111.316
65121.697109.902
66120.219108.457
67118.920107.107
68117.138105.348
69115.168103.540
70113.634102.239
71112.061100.458
72110.77899.030
73109.27497.354
74107.58495.853
75105.90594.188
76104.08192.697
77102.59291.068
78100.81789.561
7999.03188.113
8097.30586.209
8195.62484.413
8293.56682.697
8391.57080.738
8488.96579.089
8586.79277.651
8684.34375.704
8781.98273.680
8879.76072.038
8977.46470.050
9074.99067.815
9172.57065.704
9269.79963.175
9366.45660.431
9463.66757.010
9560.22254.494
9656.26951.520
9751.98646.999
9847.23542.883
9938.01337.739


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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