Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Oct103.68657.0077.57064.375235.593
Oct-Nov163.99082.91513.280114.869342.800
Oct-Dec202.299102.11215.287156.532424.702

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10237.802351.005
20201.442295.977
30177.528259.803
40157.903225.888
50139.502196.319
60122.762164.758
70106.015135.568
8087.534103.788
9065.09765.886

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1326.936489.698
2302.700445.599
3290.333428.271
4278.166413.997
5269.511403.400
6259.566388.607
7251.758378.156
8247.491368.335
9243.177358.470
10237.802351.005
11233.383344.770
12229.653337.835
13226.084332.534
14221.656327.183
15217.832321.251
16214.125316.503
17210.521310.910
18206.650305.156
19203.517300.042
20201.442295.977
21198.467292.019
22195.246287.576
23192.647284.444
24190.019279.841
25188.428276.932
26185.693274.413
27183.308270.548
28181.562267.454
29179.716263.829
30177.528259.803
31175.814256.084
32173.702252.271
33171.224249.234
34168.996246.217
35166.878242.036
36164.757238.660
37162.846235.258
38161.383232.057
39159.797229.405
40157.903225.888
41156.101222.452
42154.352219.884
43152.574217.705
44150.736214.688
45148.623211.951
46146.799208.859
47145.100206.028
48143.060202.294
49141.151199.437
50139.502196.319
51137.811193.461
52136.476190.573
53134.852187.159
54133.420183.858
55131.926180.470
56130.096176.309
57128.330173.823
58126.408171.289
59124.328168.482
60122.762164.758
61121.221160.994
62119.684158.216
63117.808155.597
64115.814152.350
65114.166149.797
66112.744147.166
67110.994144.687
68109.337141.423
69107.374138.032
70106.015135.568
71104.535132.165
72102.653129.411
73100.666126.150
7499.084123.206
7597.320119.911
7695.220116.939
7793.489113.670
7891.611110.623
7989.386107.680
8087.534103.788
8185.660100.095
8283.22096.551
8381.20892.494
8479.44689.071
8576.73886.087
8674.65582.047
8772.55877.860
8870.04774.478
8967.56070.410
9065.09765.886
9161.96961.670
9258.65756.715
9355.47951.480
9451.34545.203
9546.84540.793
9642.98935.831
9737.05328.870
9829.79723.194
9918.43217.029


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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