Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Sep110.96965.06388.18616.95188.291199.482
Sep-Oct216.278126.483163.92224.521153.596412.361
Sep-Nov277.760185.351204.35030.232203.943536.507

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10390.372455.942
20343.264387.659
30308.182344.131
40280.850304.187
50254.324269.897
60229.491233.559
70204.099199.685
80174.440161.313
90136.409109.070

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1523.742640.279
2482.209579.683
3460.081556.390
4445.325537.416
5430.389523.453
6419.468504.138
7411.189490.613
8403.531477.995
9396.378465.408
10390.372455.942
11384.915448.072
12378.130439.361
13373.859432.730
14368.656426.061
15363.639418.698
16358.625412.825
17354.907405.932
18350.105398.870
19346.912392.614
20343.264387.659
21339.788382.846
22336.176377.457
23332.258373.670
24328.855368.116
25325.544364.616
26322.203361.589
27318.371356.955
28314.338353.254
29311.684348.927
30308.182344.131
31305.141339.714
32302.035335.194
33298.695331.602
34296.003328.038
35293.158323.112
36290.671319.141
37288.117315.149
38285.632311.398
39283.154308.295
40280.850304.187
41277.723300.181
42274.924297.191
43272.198294.656
44269.623291.152
45267.028287.975
46264.146284.392
47262.016281.114
48259.732276.796
49257.555273.496
50254.324269.897
51251.883266.601
52249.866263.273
53248.031259.341
54245.438255.540
55242.905251.641
56240.391246.854
57237.456243.994
58234.561241.078
59232.352237.848
60229.491233.559
61226.954229.220
62224.176226.015
63222.279222.990
64219.701219.234
65216.830216.278
66214.949213.224
67213.003210.342
68210.463206.539
69207.315202.575
70204.099199.685
71201.199195.682
72198.216192.429
73195.559188.558
74192.554185.047
75190.128181.094
76186.906177.507
77183.863173.533
78180.288169.801
79177.374166.167
80174.440161.313
81171.192156.648
82166.847152.113
83163.211146.840
84159.487142.315
85156.327138.308
86152.983132.777
87148.450126.901
88144.590122.032
89140.524116.011
90136.409109.070
91130.825102.333
92125.51494.019
93120.24384.674
94114.77672.506
95107.45163.161
9699.66451.630
9787.89832.972
9873.03414.620
9953.5350.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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