Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov61.48358.87040.4556.62050.347119.294
Nov-Dec100.449112.56067.7009.49892.834285.288
Nov-Jan122.390144.54178.18010.875113.701343.464

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10150.728216.029
20128.658179.400
30111.533155.372
4098.194132.933
5087.077113.512
6077.09993.065
7066.72574.611
8055.48155.335
9041.77433.907

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1225.724308.445
2202.298279.056
3189.817267.509
4179.747257.997
5172.562250.935
6166.177241.078
7162.275234.115
8158.907227.572
9155.212221.000
10150.728216.029
11148.209211.876
12146.064207.258
13143.398203.728
14140.322200.165
15138.449196.216
16136.256193.056
17133.715189.334
18132.003185.505
19130.547182.103
20128.658179.400
21126.788176.768
22124.707173.814
23123.076171.732
24121.118168.674
25119.296166.742
26117.824165.068
27116.196162.502
28114.713160.448
29113.293158.042
30111.533155.372
31109.958152.906
32108.718150.379
33107.596148.367
34106.221146.369
35104.805143.601
36103.744141.368
37102.175139.119
38100.816137.004
3999.253135.253
4098.194132.933
4196.877130.667
4295.727128.976
4394.455127.541
4493.198125.556
4592.342123.756
4691.206121.726
4790.123119.868
4889.199117.421
4988.115115.551
5087.077113.512
5186.203111.646
5285.135109.763
5383.909107.540
5482.978105.394
5582.029103.196
5681.067100.502
5780.01698.896
5878.88897.262
5977.94095.456
6077.09993.065
6176.00390.655
6274.93188.881
6374.00687.214
6472.81585.152
6571.93483.536
6670.94181.874
6769.95880.313
6869.00778.265
6967.94576.145
7066.72574.611
7165.59072.500
7264.23570.799
7363.07868.794
7462.03966.992
7561.14764.986
7659.89263.186
7758.88461.216
7857.64359.391
7956.50757.638
8055.48155.335
8154.39653.167
8253.22551.102
8352.06048.757
8450.20946.794
8549.09245.096
8647.53542.816
8746.08040.475
8844.71438.601
8943.32236.367
9041.77433.907
9140.09731.638
9238.46328.999
9336.57926.242
9434.77022.975
9532.13220.703
9629.22918.166
9725.45914.636
9821.73911.775
9916.9528.677


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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