Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec38.96653.69027.2452.87842.487165.994
Dec-Jan60.90785.67137.7254.25563.354224.171
Dec-Feb78.209118.31744.7404.83889.724351.648

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.703142.941
2071.484110.389
3062.22792.422
4054.44577.656
5048.00966.191
6042.17555.173
7036.06445.873
8029.89736.384
9021.55825.091

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1136.130263.112
2120.812217.768
3112.340201.952
4106.977189.691
5102.394181.014
698.469169.478
795.793161.714
893.038154.696
990.535147.908
1087.703142.941
1185.246138.898
1283.162134.515
1381.405131.242
1479.599128.004
1577.675124.492
1676.363121.738
1775.193118.557
1873.825115.355
1972.535112.567
2071.484110.389
2170.385108.301
2269.470105.994
2368.669104.391
2467.738102.070
2566.557100.624
2665.64599.384
2764.60897.505
2863.82096.020
2962.95694.303
3062.22792.422
3161.43990.711
3260.67088.980
3359.70987.620
3458.92486.283
3558.09984.455
3657.39583.000
3756.64281.552
3855.81980.206
3955.05979.103
4054.44577.656
4153.77676.260
4253.17375.229
4352.55974.361
4451.91273.170
4551.30972.101
4650.62170.906
4749.83969.824
4849.11768.412
4948.43067.345
5048.00966.191
5147.59665.145
5247.06064.099
5346.55762.875
5445.97561.704
5545.24960.516
5644.59259.075
5743.92758.223
5843.41657.362
5942.79556.416
6042.17555.173
6141.58153.931
6241.13953.023
6340.49552.174
6439.77251.130
6539.20450.316
6638.65149.482
6737.98248.702
6837.44447.683
6936.67946.632
7036.06445.873
7135.52044.833
7234.88343.996
7334.24043.011
7433.64842.127
7533.11441.143
7632.39740.259
7731.71639.291
7831.15938.392
7930.51137.526
8029.89736.384
8129.20635.302
8228.54434.264
8327.64133.075
8426.84132.070
8526.04331.191
8625.14329.995
8724.38828.746
8823.67727.728
8922.73126.490
9021.55825.091
9120.56323.761
9219.55522.158
9318.48220.404
9417.15518.197
9515.39316.558
9613.65614.602
9711.91011.587
989.4478.795
994.9355.231


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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