Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River( )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec38.96653.69229.1602.87842.487165.994
Dec-Jan60.90785.66740.5254.25563.354224.171
Dec-Feb78.209118.30748.2944.83889.723351.648

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1088.395142.941
2072.239110.389
3062.86992.422
4055.04877.656
5048.57066.191
6042.69455.173
7036.52845.873
8030.32936.384
9021.95025.091

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1137.322263.112
2121.923217.768
3113.312201.952
4107.858189.691
5103.261181.014
699.266169.478
796.727161.714
893.799154.696
991.282147.908
1088.395142.941
1186.085138.898
1283.866134.515
1382.163131.242
1480.386128.004
1578.395124.492
1677.160121.738
1775.923118.557
1874.541115.355
1973.231112.567
2072.239110.389
2171.151108.301
2270.208105.994
2369.447104.391
2468.420102.070
2567.206100.624
2666.36299.384
2765.34597.505
2864.51496.020
2963.59494.303
3062.86992.422
3162.06390.711
3261.28488.980
3360.32187.620
3459.56786.283
3558.72784.455
3658.07183.000
3757.28381.552
3856.46380.206
3955.66679.103
4055.04877.656
4154.40776.260
4253.73375.229
4353.12374.361
4452.50073.170
4551.90472.101
4651.21070.906
4750.35169.824
4849.64468.412
4949.03067.345
5048.57066.191
5148.13765.145
5247.62064.099
5347.11262.875
5446.51161.704
5545.76760.516
5645.12759.075
5744.46858.223
5843.92357.362
5943.31056.416
6042.69455.173
6142.08253.931
6241.61453.023
6341.00952.174
6440.27351.130
6539.71250.316
6639.14449.482
6738.50048.702
6837.93047.683
6937.18846.632
7036.52845.873
7136.01044.833
7235.36343.996
7334.67143.011
7434.13042.127
7533.54441.143
7632.86540.259
7732.14639.291
7831.58338.392
7930.95537.526
8030.32936.384
8129.59135.302
8228.95234.264
8328.03033.075
8427.30632.070
8526.44331.191
8625.52629.995
8724.76828.746
8824.05727.728
8923.08826.490
9021.95025.091
9120.91623.761
9219.89422.158
9318.81920.404
9417.46618.197
9515.75016.558
9614.02914.602
9712.20811.587
989.7528.795
995.0455.231


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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