Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr17.22337.87313.1367.93317.76042.391
Apr-May50.76775.02435.19613.87239.524262.942
Apr-Jun100.445129.52490.02922.88574.192333.783

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10166.391168.089
20134.646130.270
30116.267110.135
40101.85194.037
5089.89981.848
6079.23070.416
7069.22761.003
8058.49151.646
9045.70640.877

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1275.994319.323
2238.525260.399
3221.795240.340
4205.382224.980
5197.510214.215
6190.213200.042
7183.068190.597
8175.561182.128
9171.336173.999
10166.391168.089
11162.248163.307
12157.954158.146
13155.112154.312
14151.302150.535
15148.557146.455
16144.360143.269
17141.581139.604
18139.529135.932
19136.784132.748
20134.646130.270
21132.589127.901
22130.925125.292
23128.972123.485
24126.325120.876
25124.464119.255
26122.400117.869
27120.820115.773
28119.410114.121
29117.699112.215
30116.267110.135
31114.393108.248
32112.703106.345
33111.362104.853
34109.804103.390
35108.635101.396
36107.16699.813
37105.77598.242
38104.59796.786
39103.19095.595
40101.85194.037
41100.99792.538
4299.81291.433
4398.61490.505
4497.50689.234
4596.22588.096
4694.62886.827
4793.32085.679
4891.97084.187
4991.04083.061
5089.89981.848
5188.91980.751
5287.96279.655
5387.03978.377
5485.80177.157
5584.78975.923
5683.61674.431
5782.59673.551
5881.35672.664
5980.42771.691
6079.23070.416
6178.19569.146
6277.20968.220
6376.21867.356
6475.37166.296
6574.56565.472
6673.79464.629
6772.76663.842
6871.67562.817
6970.71461.763
7069.22761.003
7168.32059.965
7267.32859.132
7366.22458.154
7465.23257.278
7564.09356.306
7662.97455.436
7761.79254.485
7860.71653.604
7959.60652.759
8058.49151.646
8157.59550.597
8256.28849.593
8355.21848.448
8454.21247.483
8552.98146.641
8651.51145.501
8750.11644.316
8848.47043.353
8947.11342.188
9045.70640.877
9144.37139.637
9242.86738.152
9341.38636.538
9439.23434.524
9537.12733.042
9634.64131.287
9731.81128.614
9828.99526.175
9924.39623.119


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence