Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Oct104.67975.74057.0087.57069.264235.593
Oct-Nov165.715116.19582.86613.280122.344342.800
Oct-Dec204.431143.440102.06315.287166.662424.702

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10342.729351.005
20305.163295.977
30277.567259.803
40253.723225.888
50233.456196.319
60213.022164.758
70191.716135.568
80168.279103.788
90135.60265.886

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1446.233489.698
2410.326445.599
3396.474428.271
4383.763413.997
5374.014403.400
6366.137388.607
7358.283378.156
8352.487368.335
9347.196358.470
10342.729351.005
11338.505344.770
12334.070337.835
13329.480332.534
14325.565327.183
15321.664321.251
16318.261316.503
17314.247310.910
18311.226305.156
19308.222300.042
20305.163295.977
21301.520292.019
22299.524287.576
23297.288284.444
24294.350279.841
25290.674276.932
26287.627274.413
27284.901270.548
28282.116267.454
29279.504263.829
30277.567259.803
31275.054256.084
32272.479252.271
33270.350249.234
34268.354246.217
35265.797242.036
36263.163238.660
37261.246235.258
38259.026232.057
39255.946229.405
40253.723225.888
41251.468222.452
42249.369219.884
43247.773217.705
44245.426214.688
45243.488211.951
46241.670208.859
47239.495206.028
48237.255202.294
49235.526199.437
50233.456196.319
51231.757193.461
52229.903190.573
53227.384187.159
54225.133183.858
55223.114180.470
56221.375176.309
57219.196173.823
58217.124171.289
59215.291168.482
60213.022164.758
61210.822160.994
62208.706158.216
63206.333155.597
64204.681152.350
65202.206149.797
66200.197147.166
67198.203144.687
68196.027141.423
69193.681138.032
70191.716135.568
71189.923132.165
72187.853129.411
73185.519126.150
74182.848123.206
75179.888119.911
76178.025116.939
77175.754113.670
78173.438110.623
79171.247107.680
80168.279103.788
81165.454100.095
82162.60996.551
83159.22192.494
84156.49789.071
85153.20286.087
86149.56082.047
87146.24777.860
88142.88974.478
89139.62470.410
90135.60265.886
91131.27061.670
92127.37756.715
93122.51951.480
94116.60645.203
95112.20440.793
96106.43835.831
9796.80728.870
9885.24123.194
9968.97917.029


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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