Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov61.03540.45525.9086.62053.080119.294
Nov-Dec99.75267.70045.1059.49897.399285.288
Nov-Jan121.44978.18057.98910.875118.879343.464

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10186.430216.029
20160.840179.400
30142.555155.372
40126.681132.933
50114.154113.512
60101.87393.065
7090.50974.611
8076.43055.335
9059.31933.907

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1268.156308.445
2242.184279.056
3227.060267.509
4217.641257.997
5211.892250.935
6204.556241.078
7199.201234.115
8194.746227.572
9190.171221.000
10186.430216.029
11183.800211.876
12180.393207.258
13177.442203.728
14175.478200.165
15172.683196.216
16169.993193.056
17167.603189.334
18165.097185.505
19163.313182.103
20160.840179.400
21159.185176.768
22157.560173.814
23155.751171.732
24153.894168.674
25151.627166.742
26149.929165.068
27148.367162.502
28146.337160.448
29144.560158.042
30142.555155.372
31140.769152.906
32138.991150.379
33137.698148.367
34135.817146.369
35134.197143.601
36132.642141.368
37131.434139.119
38129.686137.004
39128.584135.253
40126.681132.933
41125.107130.667
42123.820128.976
43122.485127.541
44121.092125.556
45120.082123.756
46118.772121.726
47117.619119.868
48116.294117.421
49115.357115.551
50114.154113.512
51112.932111.646
52111.502109.763
53110.261107.540
54109.031105.394
55107.903103.196
56106.741100.502
57105.47198.896
58104.15197.262
59103.04295.456
60101.87393.065
61100.82990.655
6299.62088.881
6398.54687.214
6497.28785.152
6596.08083.536
6694.77681.874
6793.56080.313
6892.41778.265
6991.39876.145
7090.50974.611
7189.01872.500
7287.46870.799
7386.03768.794
7484.86466.992
7583.63764.986
7682.45563.186
7780.55661.216
7879.11259.391
7977.72757.638
8076.43055.335
8175.03753.167
8273.38751.102
8371.65248.757
8470.44446.794
8568.86745.096
8667.17042.816
8765.57140.475
8863.68138.601
8961.92336.367
9059.31933.907
9157.52831.638
9255.23128.999
9352.78226.242
9449.87922.975
9547.16120.703
9643.04018.166
9739.87014.636
9834.53411.775
9928.3388.677


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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