Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2003) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Mar17.94314.50510.9072.85939.758250.160
Mar-Apr35.08027.64124.6208.18658.299288.033
Mar-May68.37949.70147.96020.18881.069325.184

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.477106.087
2063.40180.976
3053.90967.778
4047.15157.327
5041.33149.485
6036.39442.192
7031.62636.241
8026.61530.378
9020.54123.710

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1132.219209.414
2113.486168.702
3104.864154.962
498.973144.487
593.705137.171
690.380127.573
787.039121.199
883.694115.500
981.036110.044
1078.477106.087
1176.192102.891
1274.43499.449
1372.45296.896
1471.02394.384
1569.40691.676
1668.20289.564
1766.93487.138
1865.91784.711
1964.57582.609
2063.40180.976
2162.31579.417
2261.24777.701
2360.23976.514
2459.38374.802
2558.33873.740
2657.44772.832
2756.63971.460
2855.70570.380
2954.75069.135
3053.90967.778
3153.14266.547
3252.44865.308
3351.65164.338
3450.88563.387
3550.17262.092
3649.52361.066
3749.03460.048
3848.36059.105
3947.69458.334
4047.15157.327
4146.54756.360
4245.92855.646
4345.23655.048
4444.49354.230
4544.00753.497
4643.43352.680
4742.89851.943
4842.49950.985
4941.96550.263
5041.33149.485
5140.79048.782
5240.21248.081
5339.69547.264
5439.23446.485
5538.64145.697
5638.19144.746
5737.68544.186
5837.16843.621
5936.72343.002
6036.39442.192
6135.85541.386
6235.45540.799
6334.86640.252
6434.36739.581
6533.90439.060
6633.55438.527
6733.06038.031
6832.59837.383
6932.10736.719
7031.62636.241
7131.00835.587
7230.47035.064
7330.03434.449
7429.49833.900
7529.03433.290
7628.48832.745
7727.99632.150
7827.51631.600
7927.04131.072
8026.61530.378
8125.86029.724
8225.26329.100
8324.69628.388
8424.03827.789
8523.56827.268
8623.04426.562
8722.63825.829
8822.01525.235
8921.23124.517
9020.54123.710
9119.78622.949
9219.12722.039
9318.25421.052
9417.40219.824
9516.43818.923
9615.27817.860
9713.69916.247
9812.24014.784
9910.16812.961


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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